The below are part of a series of alleged emails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, released on 20 November 2009.
Original Filename: 841293339.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: T.Osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx (by way of Tim Osborn <T.Osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>)
To: t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: No Subject
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 1996 00:35:39 +0100
From: CPCMB::Fxxx xxxx xxxxJUL-1995 10:53:56.46
To: MX%"pierce@xxxxxxxxx.xxx"
CC: F055
Subj: Re: Hi and questions
Dave
You're right, smoothing the P-E field is a much bigger change than adding
a bit of noise, or the statistical model feedback. But some papers give the
indication that the strong instability/variability of the thermohaline
circulation under traditional mixed boundary conditions cannot possibly
occur when a more realistic SST condition is used. Yet that's not true
of some current models - e.g.:
- some LSG/EBM configurations still oscillate,
- the Manabe & Stouffer 1988 coupled model had two stable states,
- Mikolajewicz and Maier-Reimer 1994 still could collapse NADW even with a
reduced coupling of 16 W/m**2/K (I note your caveat about the lack of scale
dependence though),
- the Stocker et al 1992 zonally averaged coupled model had multiple
equilibria,
- the OPYC/ECHAM2 coupled run (Lunkeit et al) shows what appears to be a
temporary collapse of NADW.
The answer is that the stability depends on the relative buoyancy forcing of
heat and fresh-water, as you've pointed in both you're papers. Freeing up
the SST increases the stabilising (not static stability, but stability of the
model's state) effect of the heat flux - but doesn't GUARANTEE that it will
be stronger than the fresh-water flux effect. To be realistic, the fresh-water
flux used should ideally be the observed flux - I agree that a diagnosed field
hides model errors. Its similar to the flux correction or no flux correction
dilemna of coupled models - do you want a realistic state with unrealistic
processes, or a possibly unrealistic state with realistic processes. Either
way, the response of the model to perturbations cannot be guaranteed to be
realistic. The best current way is to do both. Then, with luck, the real
world will lie between the two answers obtained.
The SALFLU_EBM file is not readable yet, although it is there.
You have some interesting papers on your WWW page - the Marginal Sea model
looks very innovative. Also, the LSG/EBM experiment with the open Panama
Isthmus shows good results. What P-E forcing field did you use for that run,
and what small-scale coupling coefficient?
Cheers,
Tim Tim Osborn, CRU, UEA, UK
Original Filename: 918146589.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" <jto@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Frank Oldfield <frank.oldfield@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Finances and futures
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 1999 11:43:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: messerli@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, domraynaud@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pedersen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Hi Frank and friends - I'm happy to see the budget looking sound and feel
Franks suggestions are good ones in terms of money to spend this year.
Building on the Swiss paleoclimate course is a good idea, and, of course,
we should decide on future REDIE investments at future SSC's. My gut
feeling is that REDIE will have to continue to be a lower priority in the
future, BUT that we should stay committed to getting scientists (including
youngsters) from developing countries to our science mtgs - makes more
sense than training probably, given tight budgets. Thanks,Peck
>Dear colleagues,
>
>I now share with you some ideas about our financial situation in PAGES. I
>think the information should be treated confidentially at this stage and
>certainly with some discretion.
>
>During the course of last year, it was very difficult to keep track of our
>financial position from month to month, partly because it took our
>financial contacts in the University of Bern an inordinately long time to
>sort out the financial implications of the OSM, partly because, in the
>course of doing this, they made some understandable but very significant
>and confusing errors. Niklaus has now managed to sort these out and we also
>have our confirmed budget for 1999 - which means that we can begin to do
>some real planning.
>
>The first significant point is that we are carrying over into 1999 a
>surplus some US$15k greater than we began with in 1998. In fact we have
>been building up our 'carry-over' steadily since the beginning of 1996 and
>it is now around $67k - between 13% and 14% or our annual budget and a much
>higher proprtion of that part of our budget that is uncommitted each year.
>Whilst I believe it would be unwise to eliminate it entirely, I do think we
>should aim to reduce it significantly provided there is a good rationale
>for the means we choose.
>
>I have attached a summary of how I see things for 1999. You will see that
>even if we spend all the funds committed to workshops at our Pallanza
>meeting, we still have a very healthy surplus. On past experience, I do not
>think this sum will be exceeded during 1999 - even if we have one or two
>more urgent requests, they are more than likely to be offset by delayed
>workshops, so I think this is actually likely to be an over-estimate.
>Moreover, I have assumed that ALL the money allocated by IGBP for Synthesis
>will be spent in 1999. We are under some pressure to do this, but the pace
>of the exercise makes me suspect that we may have difficulty.
>
>At the end of the Table, I list 3 additional commitments I would like to
>propose for prioiritizing and I discuss each briefly below:
>
>1. REDIE (which you may remember stands for Regional Educational and
>Infrastructure Efforts (about which we have, so far, said very little and
>done even less).
>
> In this area, one of the ideas gently simmering on the back burner has
>been the notion of winning support from START to run something like a
>Summer School for selected young scientists from developing countries. This
>emerged from an informal discussion between ouselves in the Office, Bruno
>and Roland Fuchs, the Director of START, when he was over here on a visit.
>At the time, he seemed quite keen on the idea, but has since been silent.
>No matter, I still feel it is an idea worth working towards at least up to
>the pre-commitment stage and I have been exploring informally the
>possibility of basing such a course in London.
>
>This coming summer, I think we may have a chance to do a kind of partial
>trial run. Thomas Stocker and Andy Lotter (a first class paleolimnologist
>here in Bern) plan to run a Summer School nearby this year. Thomas
>approached me some time ago to see if PAGES could support participation by
>any overseas students and my reply was a very cautious one to the effect
>that we would normally expect to be approached and have an input at the
>planning stage and that we would only really consider such a possibility in
>the context of training for scientists from developing countries. Having
>discussed the whole thing more fully with him, I begin to wonder whether
>it may offer quite an interesting possibility. My plan would be to seek
>nomination of/applications from say 3 to 5 young scientists from different
>parts of the developing/former eastern bloc world (represnting each of the
>PEP Transects) and bring them to Bern both for the course and for a short
>period linked into the PAGES Office. The ideas behind the latter part of
>the suggestion would be to
> - support their participation if need be,
> - give them some sense of PAGES and its role in nternational global
>change science/IGBP etc and
> - solicit feedback and advice about what the shape of an ideal course for
>developing country scientists interested in PAGES activities might be.
>
>I believe that even if we did not have something like REDIE in our
>Implementation Plan it should be an important commitment; since we do, it
>is an absolute obligation which we ignore at the risk of serious
>allegations of bad faith.
>
>2. I feel there will be a need to follow up my PEP II visit to Australia
>with something positive there. John Dodson is responding well to
>suggestions about more co-ordination and bringing in more colleagues to
>share the responsibility, but I think that if whatever we agree in Perth is
>actually to work, there will be a need to fund a WORKshop (as distinct from
>a mini-symposium) of thematic and/or regional co-ordinators to get their
>act together. We should offer money for this.
>
>3. The difference it has made having Cathy Stickley (based at UCL) working
>for PEP III is fantastic, but we risk losing her input unless something can
>be done. I'm negotiating with ESF, but it will be over a year before their
>finely grinding mills deliver anything. Rick and Francoise are also going
>to apply to EC for Framework 5 funding, but that will be no quicker. I am
>seriously considering asking Zimmie to help bridge the gap since he did not
>quite close the door when I last talked this through with him, but I feel
>that if I do this, PAGES might need to put up a bit more colateral, the
>more so since we are in credit.
>
>Both 2 and 3 reflect my view that the PEP's remain an absolutely vital part
>of the PAGES structure and need to be supported if that is the only way
>they can achieve their objectives.
>
>All three of the above suggestions require some endorsement in principle
>before I take them any further. If we were to spend all the funds envisaged
>before the end of 1999, our budget credit would be very much reduced -
>probably by too much, but I believe the PEP funding would probably be paced
>over a longer period and that the other items in our budget are more likely
>to be marginally under- than over-spent, so I do not feel we are proposing
>any unreasonable risk.
>
>I look forward to any reactions members of EXCOMM may have to these
>suggestions.
>
>Withh all good wishes,
>
>Frank
>
>
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Budget for 1999 (RTF /MSWD) (0000B314)
>____________________________________________
>Frank Oldfield
>
>Executive Director
>PAGES IPO
>Barenplatz 2
>CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland
>
>e-mail: frank.oldfield@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>
>Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx; Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html
Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck
Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
National Geophysical Data Center
325 Broadway E/GC
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
jto@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries,
PLEASE USE:
Dr. Jonathan Overpeck
NOAA National Geophysical Data Center
3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136
Boulder, CO 80303
tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Original Filename: 967041809.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: THC collapse
Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2000 10:43:xxx xxxx xxxx(PDT)
Cc: Thomas Stocker <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jerry Meehl <meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Timothy Carter <tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, maureen.joseph@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, peter.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, cubasch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "Stouffer, Ron" <rjs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, DEASTERL@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Great Tom, I think we are converging to much clearer meanings across
various cultures here. Please get the inconclusive out! By the way,
"possible" still has some logical issues as it is true for very large or
very small probabilities in principle, but if you define it clearly it is
probably OK--but "quite possible" conveys medium confidence better--but
then why not use medium confidence, as the 3 rounds of review over the
guidance paper concluded after going through exactly the kinds of
disucssions were having now. Thanks, Steve
On Wed, 23 Aug 2000 tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx wrote:
>
>
> Steve, I agree with your assesement of inconclusive --- quite possible is
> much better and we use 'possible' in the US National Assessment. Surveys
> has shown that the term 'possible' is interpreted in this range by the
> public.
>
> Tom
>
>
>
>
> Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx> on 08/23/2000 03:02:33 AM
>
>
>
> To: Thomas Stocker <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>
> cc: Jerry Meehl <meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Timothy Carter
> <tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, maureen.joseph@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> peter.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> Tom Karl/NCDC, cubasch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
> "Stouffer, Ron" <rjs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>
>
>
> Subject: Re: THC collapse
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Hello all. I appreciate the improvement in the table from WG 1,
> particularly the inclusion of symmetrical confidence levels--but please
> get rid of the ridiculous "inconclusive" for the .34 to .66 subjective
> probability range. It will convey a completely differnt meaning to lay
> persons--read decisionmakers--since that probability range represents
> medium levels of confidence, not rare events. A phrase like "quite
> possible" is closer to popular lexicon, but inconclusive applies as well
> to very likely or very unlikely events and is undoubtedly going to be
> misinterpreted on the outside. I also appreciate the addition of
> increasing huricane intensities with warming moving out of the catch all
> less than .66 category it was in the SOD.
> I do have some concerns with the THC issue as dealt with here--echoing
> the comments of Tim Carter and Thomas Stocker. I fully agree that the
> likelihood of a complete collapse in the THC by 2100 is very remote, but
> to leave it at that is very misleading to policymakers given than there is
> both empirical and modeling evidence that such events can be triggered by
> phenomena in one century, but the occurrence of the event may be delayed
> a century or two more. Given also that the likelihood of a collapse
> depends on several uncertain parameters--CO2 stabilization level, CO2
> buildup rate, climate sensitivity, hydrological sensitivity and initial
> THC overturning rates, it is inconceivable to me that we could be 99% sure
> of anything--implied by the "exceptionally unlikely" label--given the
> plausibility of an unhappy combo of climate sensitivity, slower than
> current A/OGCMs initial THC strength and more rapid CO2 increase
> scenarios. Also, if 21st century actions could trigger 22nd century
> irreversible consequences, it would be irresponsible of us to not mention
> this possibility in a footnote at least, and not to simply let the matter
> rest with a very low likelihood of a collapse wholly within the 21st
> century. So my view is to add a footnote to this effect and be sure to
> convey the many paramenters that are uncertain which determine the
> likelihood of this event.
> Thanks again for the good work on this improtant table. Cheers, Steve
>
>
> On Wed, 23 Aug 2000, Thomas Stocker wrote:
>
> > DEar Jerry, Tim and Ron et al
> >
> > I agree that an abrupt collapse - abrupt meaning within less than a
> decade, say
> > - has not been simulated by any climate model (3D and intermediate
> complexity)
> > in response to increasing CO2. Some models do show for longer
> integrations a
> > complete collapse that occurs within about xxx xxxx xxxxyears. If you put that
> into
> > context of the apparent stability of THC during the last 10,000 years or
> so,
> > this is pretty "abrupt".
> >
> > Following up on the discussion regarding THC collapse, I think the
> statement Ron
> > apparently added to Ch9 needs to be made more specific. In order to keep
> Ch7 and
> > Ch9 consistent, I propose to Ron the following revision:
> >
> > "It seems that the likelihood of a collapse of the THC by year 2100 is
> less
> > than previously thought in the SAR based on the AOGCM results to date."
> >
> > There is really no model basis to extend this statement beyond 2100 as
> evidenced
> > by the figures that we show in TAR. There are many models that now run up
> to
> > 2060, some up to 2100, but very few longer.
> >
> > Also I should add for your information, that we add to Ch7 a sentence:
> >
> > "Models with reduced THC appear to be more susceptible for a
> > shutdown."
> >
> > Models indicate that the THC becomes more susceptible to collapse if
> previously
> > reduced (GFDL results by Tziperman, Science 97 and JPO 99). This is
> important as
> > "collapse unlikely by 2100" should not tempt people to conclude that THC
> > collapse is hence not an issue. The contrary is true: reduction means
> > destabilisation.
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > thomas
> > --
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> > Thomas Stocker
> > Climate and Environmental Physics stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> > Physics Institute, University of Bern phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
> > Sidlerstrasse xxx xxxx xxxx NEW fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
> > 3012 Bern, Switzerland http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~stocker
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
>
> ------
> Stephen H. Schneider
> Dept. of Biological Sciences
> Stanford University
> Stanford, CA 94xxx xxxx xxxxU.S.A.
>
> Tel: (650)xxx xxxx xxxx
> Fax: (650)xxx xxxx xxxx
> shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>
>
>
>
>
------
Stephen H. Schneider
Dept. of Biological Sciences
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94xxx xxxx xxxxU.S.A.
Tel: (650)xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: (650)xxx xxxx xxxx
shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Original Filename: 990718506.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Fwd: Recent Paper from the Competitive Enterprise Institute
Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 11:35:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)
Reply-to: <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Cc: <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, tom crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <jto@u.arizona.edu>, <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Folland, Chris" <ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Mike:
You are right: this is a disinformation campaign.
Some remarks
1) On the Christy et al grl paper, I sent the following to John following
the IPCC Shanghai mtg.:
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2001 15:39:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: John Christy <christy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: your grl paper
John:
Just back from IPCC. One surprise was the strong Saudi delegation
distributed your recent grl paper and wanted it inserted into the SPM! In
spite of the fact that you are a lead author on Chapter 2 , the paper is
referenced, etc. In fact Simon Brown was there.
Chris Folland made a comment about his hypothesis for this: related to
changes/growth in ships. My hypothesis focusses on the buoy data.
See our recent paper submitted to jgr:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001b/jgr2.html also
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001a/jgr_interann.html
This shows that during and following El Nino there is an anomalous flux of
heat out of ocean into atmosphere in the east Pacific of order 50 W m-2 over
many months: so ocean T warms relative to air. During La Lina flux goes
other way. i.e. air warms relative to ocean.
So your results must be affected by 1xxx xxxx xxxxevent at end of series and that
may explain trend differential.
Hope this helps
Regards
Kevin
i.e. the result is not as advertized.
=====================
2) wrt Lindzen's paper
Here is the text from my recent Senate testimony
The determination of the climatic response to the changes in heating and
cooling is complicated by feedbacks. Some of these can amplify the original
warming (positive feedback) while others serve to reduce it (negative
feedback). If, for instance, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
were suddenly doubled, but with other things remaining the same, the outgoing
long-wave radiation would be reduced and instead trapped in the atmosphere.
To restore the radiative balance, the atmosphere must warm up and, in the
absence of other changes, the warming at the surface and throughout the
troposphere would be about 1.2dg C. In reality, many other factors will
change, and various feedbacks come into play, so that the best IPCC estimate
of the average global warming for doubled carbon dioxide is 2.5dg C. In
other words, the net effect of the feedbacks is positive and roughly doubles
the response otherwise expected. The main positive feedback comes from
increases in water vapor with warming.
In 2001, the IPCC gave special attention to this topic. The many issues with
water vapor and clouds were addressed at some length in Chapter 7 (of which I
was a lead author, along with Professor Richard Lindzen (M.I.T.), and
others). Recent possibilities that might nullify global warming (Lindzen
2001) were considered but not accepted because they run counter to the
prevailing evidence, and the IPCC (Stocker et al., 2001) concluded that ``the
balance of evidence favours a positive clear sky water vapour feedback of the
magnitude comparable to that found in the simulations."
===
Here is a more complete rebuttal, written March 23 to MacCracken.
Subject: Re: Recent Lindzen paper
Kevin Trenberth
1) The paper is based on very simple conceptual ideas that do not mesh with
reality. Fig. 2 is simply not correct. For a more correct view of the
overturning see:
Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak and J. M. Caron, 2000: The global monsoon
as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. {J. Climate},
13, 3xxx xxxx xxxx.
This paper also shows that the flow in the tropics is dominated by transients
(and thus mixing) of all kinds. The mean overturning is only about a third
of the daily mean variance for a month and much less if the intra diurnal
variations and interannual variations are included.
2) The "observations" analysis makes absolutely no sense to me at all. There
is a totally inadequate description of what is done and no way to decipher
what a dot in Fig 5 or Fig 6 is. Given 20 months, and daily values (how
was that done?) why are there only about 330 points? Why isn't Fig 6 part
of Fig. 5?
In any event the results are totally at odds with other evidence. Here I
refer to the Goes Precipitation Index which uses 3 hourly data on OLR, and
thus on high cloud, as an index of rainfall, and it is clear from many
studies that OLR generally decreases (convection and high cloud increase)
with SST, the reverse of the relationship in Fig. 5.
Moreover the whole conceptual basis for anything here is surely flawed. As
stated, on short time scales SST is not changing. But clouds are NOT caused
by local SST, rather they arise from either transients, like the MJO, or for
the ITCZ and SPCZ (which are major operators in this region), they come from
moisture convergence (P>>E) and so it is the patterns of SST (gradients) as
well as where the warmest water is that determines where the convergence and
clouds occur. Now in the warm pool, the convergence is focussed more on the
edges, as that is where the pressure gradients are greater, and so the
convergence is not where SST is necessarily highest.
In any case, moisture is not equal to cloudy air. Many analyses show that
moisture is much more extensive, see for example
Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1998: Evaluation of the atmospheric
moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. {Climate
Dyn.}, {14}, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Even with such results, other factors need to be considered.
One process might be
High SST => convergence => rainfall and cloud
OR
Less cloud => more solar radiation => higher SST
Those give opposite relations and both operate. The latter is more important
in the Indian Ocean where subsidence (from the Pacific) dominates.
However, it also operates over the oceans in the region in question in
northern summer, because that is the monsoon season, and the main convection
is over land, meaning subsidence over the ocean.
None of this is sorted out in any way in this paper.
In fact it is so bad in this regard I do not know how it got published.
In Fig 5 etc, no correlations are given, nor are their significance levels.
My rough estimate is that the correlation is about 0.2 to 0.3 and that is
significant if the 330 or so points are independent. But why should I have
to guess at that.
Again I would question the editorial and review process.
3) Finally, I refer you to chapter 7 of IPCC which is a more balanced
assessment. Lindzen was a coauthor of that with me and others. Lindzen
wrote 7.2.1 and the same figure 1 in the BAMS article was included as 7.1 in
chapter 7 along with similar ones from models, showing that these things are
fully simulated in good models, although better with higher resolution.
Anyway, his arguments were fully considered in chapter 7 and you can read it
to see the result. The whole of 7.2.1, including 7.2.1.1. 7.2.1.2 and
7.2.1.3 was put together originally by Lindzen, Pierrehumbert and Le Treut,
but basically the final version was rewritten by me to provide better
balance. Pierrehumbert is an agnostic of sorts: disbelieves everything
including models but seems to have faith in simple theories. Le Treut was
sound on the modeling. I did not change the substance of what they prepared,
I did reshape it and polish and it ended up in a form they accepted.
Note at the end it clearly states:
"the balance of evidence favours a positive clear sky water vapour feedback of
the magnitude comparable to that found in the simulations."
The 4 subsections together are quite long and throughly air the issue, much
moreso than any previous IPCC report. For those of you who do not have it:
7.2.1 "Physics of the water vapour and cloud feedbacks" (draft written by
Lindzen) is 1.3 pages, 7.2.1.1 (I think Pierrehumbert) "Water vapour
feedback", is 1 page, 7.2.1.2 "Representation of watre vapour in models" is
1.5 pages (Le Treut) and 7.2.1.3 "Summary on water vapour feedbacks" is half
a page or so.
---------------
Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, ML www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box 3000, [1850 Table Mesa Drive] (3xxx xxxx xxxx
Boulder, CO 80307 [80305] (3xxx xxxx xxxx(fax)
*******************************
On Thu, 24 May 2001, Michael E. Mann wrote:
> FYI. I received this from a colleague. This gives you some idea of who is
> behind this latest disinformation push.
>
> A note to all regarding the Broecker piece, which has been heavily referred
> to in this and other similar recent pieces (though it is an opinion piece,
> and not peer-reviewed).
> A response by Bradley, Briffa, Crowley, Hughes, Jones, and Mann appears in
> tomorrows issue of "Science". This response simply points out that old
> fallacies that are simply reiterated in Broecker's piece...
>
> mike
>
>
>
>
>
> > COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
> >
> >
> > Advancing the principles of free enterprise and
> > limited government
> >
> >
> > 5/16/01
> >
> > Latest Global Warming Report Already Obsolete
> >
> > By Paul J. Georgia
> >
> >
> >
> > The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> >(IPCC) is
> > conducting a campaign of fear to convince us that energy
> >suppression is
> > our only salvation. The "Summary for Policymakers" of the
> >group's latest
> > report ? the report itself has not been officially released ?
> >paints a horrific
> > picture of a climate system gone mad.
> >
> > The new report, known as the "Third Assessment Report" (TAR),
> >is
> > expected to be the focal point for policymakers for the next
> >five years as
> > they decide what to do about global warming, just as the 1995
> >Second
> > Assessment Report has guided policymakers for the last five
> >years.
> > Indeed, the bureaucrats driving the global warming process
> >are using the
> > IPCC to justify their anti-energy policies. Klaus Toepfer,
> >executive
> > director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said,
> >"The
> > scientific consensus presented in this comprehensive report
> >about
> > human induced climate change should sound alarm bells in
> >every
> > national capital and in every local community."[1]
> >
> > In the midst of this campaign, however, the science continues
> >to move
> > apace, leaving many of the IPCC's underlying assumptions and
> > subsequent conclusions in shambles. A sampling of scientific
> >studies
> > published after the completion of the final drafts of the TAR
> >is presented
> > here to give the reader a taste of the constant flux of
> >scientific inquiry and
> > our rapidly changing understanding of the climate system.
> >Indeed, if
> > recent studies are correct there would be little
> >justification for Kyoto-style
> > policies that would ultimately impede humanity's ability to
> >provide itself
> > with the wealth- and health-enhancing benefits of modern
> >civilization.
> >
> > Water Vapor Feedback. The biggest uncertainty in climate
> >science
> > remains "feedback" effects on the climate. The conventional
> >explanation
> > by proponents of global warming theory always assumes that
> > human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of
> >greenhouse
> > gases, primarily carbon dioxide, could lead to catastrophic
> >warming of
> > the planet. Man-made greenhouse gas emissions, however, are
> >only an
> > indirect cause of the forecasted warming. A doubling of
> >carbon dioxide
> > concentrations alone would lead to slight warming of about
> >one degree
> > Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next 100 years.
> >This small
> > amount of warming, according to standard global warming
> >theory, speeds
> > up evaporation, thereby increasing the amount of water vapor
> >(a major
> > greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere. This "positive water
> >vapor feedback"
> > effect is where most of the predicted warming comes from.
> >This
> > assumption has never been tested.
> >
> > A recent study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological
> >Society
> > suggests that the reverse is true.[2] The authors find a
> >negative water
> > vapor feedback effect that is powerful enough to offset all
> >other positive
> > feedbacks. Using detailed daily observations of cloud cover
> >from
> > satellites in the tropics and comparing them to sea surface
> >temperatures,
> > the researchers found that there is an "iris effect" in which
> >higher
> > temperatures reduce the warming effect of clouds.
> >
> > According to a NASA statement about the study, "Clouds play a
> >critical
> > and complicated role in regulating the temperature of the
> >Earth. Thick,
> > bright, watery clouds like cumulus shield the atmosphere from
> >incoming
> > solar radiation by reflecting much of it back into space.
> >Thin, icy cirrus
> > clouds are poor sunshields but very efficient insulators that
> >trap energy
> > rising from the Earth's warmed surface. A decrease in cirrus
> >cloud area
> > would have a cooling effect by allowing more heat energy, or
> >infrared
> > radiation, to leave the planet."[3]
> >
> > The researchers found that a one degree Celsius rise in ocean
> >surface
> > temperature decreased the ratio of cirrus cloud area to
> >cumulus cloud
> > area by 17 to 27 percent, allowing more heat to escape.
> >
> > In an interview, lead author Dr. Richard S. Lindzen said the
> >climate
> > models used in the IPCC have the cloud physics wrong. "We
> >found that
> > there were terrible errors about clouds in all the models,
> >and that that will
> > make it impossible to predict the climate sensitivity because
> >the
> > sensitivity of the models depends primarily on water vapor
> >and clouds.
> > Moreover, if clouds are wrong, there's no way you can get
> >water vapor
> > right. They're both intimately tied to each other." Lindzen
> >argues that
> > due to this new finding he doesn't expect "much more than a
> >degree
> > warming and probably a lot less by 2100."[4]
> >
> > The study is the best empirical confirmation to date of the
> >negative
> > feedback hypothesis proposed by Lindzen early on in the
> >global warming
> > debate. It builds on earlier empirical work by Drs. Roy
> >Spencer of NASA
> > and William Braswell of Nichols Research Corporation. Their
> >1997 study
> > also cast doubt on the assumption of a positive water vapor
> >feedback
> > effect.[5] They found that the tropical troposphere, the
> >layer of air
> > between 25,000 and 50,000 feet, is much dryer than climate
> >modelers
> > previously thought. Further empirical work will no doubt
> >confirm whether
> > this phenomenon is common throughout the tropics, which act
> >as the
> > Earth's exhaust vents for escaping heat.
> >
> >
> > Black Carbon. In 1995, the IPCC had to explain in its Second
> > Assessment Report why its previous predictions of global
> >temperature
> > change were nearly three times larger than observed in the
> >actual
> > temperature record. The SAR concluded that emissions of
> >sulfate
> > aerosols from burning coal were offsetting the warming that
> >should be
> > caused by carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Sulfate
> >aerosols,
> > according to this explanation, reflect incoming solar
> >radiation back to
> > space, thereby cooling the planet.
> >
> >
> > The TAR takes the sulfate aerosol idea even further. The SAR
> >had
> > predicted a temperature rise of 1 to 3.5 degrees C (1.8 to
> >6.3 degrees F)
> > over the next 100 years. The TAR goes even further,
> >anticipating a 1.4 to
> > 5.8 degrees C (2.52 to 10.44 degrees F) rise in temperature.
> >The
> > extreme case scenario of a 5.8 degrees C of warming, for
> >instance, is
> > based partly on assumptions that the whole world will raise
> >its level of
> > economic activity to that of the U.S., will equal U.S. per
> >capita energy
> > use, and energy use will be carbon intensive. The primary
> >assumption
> > behind the new scenario, however, is that sulfate aerosol
> >emissions will
> > be eliminated by government regulation, giving carbon dioxide
> >free
> > reign.[6]
> >
> > Sulfate aerosols, then, are a key component of catastrophic
> >global
> > warming scenarios. Without them, the IPCC cannot explain why
> >the
> > earth is not warming according to their forecasts, nor can
> >they
> > reasonably claim that global warming will lead to
> >catastrophes of biblical
> > proportions.
> >
> > A new study in Nature eliminates sulfate aerosols as a
> >corrective for the
> > models. [7] The author, Mark Jacobson, a professor with the
> >Department
> > of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University,
> >examines
> > how black carbon aerosols affect the Earth's climate. Unlike
> >other
> > aerosols that reflect solar radiation back into space, black
> >carbon (soot)
> > absorbs solar radiation, thereby raising atmospheric
> >temperatures.
> >
> > Until now the warming influence of black carbon was thought
> >to be minor,
> > leading researchers to ignore it. James Hansen, with the
> >Goddard
> > Institute for Space Studies, in a paper published in August
> >2000, first
> > suggested that black carbon plays an important role in global
> > warming.[8] Jacobson found "a higher positive forcing from
> >black carbon
> > than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect
> >from black
> > carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other
> >anthropogenic
> > aerosol constituents."
> >
> > There you have it. Soot offsets the cooling effect of other
> >aerosols,
> > meaning we are back at square one. Scientists still do not
> >have a
> > plausible explanation for why the Earth has failed to warm in
> >line with
> > climate model results. Indeed, all the prognostications of
> >the IPCC are
> > wrong if the Nature study is right.
> >
> >
> > Natural Cycles. The main propaganda device of the TAR is the
> >"hockey
> > stick graph." The graph is a temperature record derived from
> >tree rings
> > dating back to 1000 AD and running through 1900, with the
> >20th century
> > thermometer-based temperature data attached at the end.[9]
> >It claims to
> > show that global temperatures have remained steady or even
> >decreased
> > during the last millennium until the industrial age, when
> >there was an
> > anomalous warming represented by the blade of the hockey
> >stick. The
> > hockey stick is largely bogus, however. The margin of error
> >is so large
> > that nearly any temperature trend could be drawn to fit
> >within it.
> >
> >
> >
> > The hockey stick features prominently in all of IPCC Chairman
> >Robert
> > Watson's speeches, and to the uninitiated it is very
> >persuasive. Senator
> > John McCain (R-AZ), for example, expressed alarm when he saw
> >the
> > graph at Commerce Committee hearings last May.
> >
> >
> > Watson uses the hockey stick to claim that current warming is
> >greater
> > than at any other time in the last 1,000 years. The Medieval
> >Warm
> > Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) were two naturally
> >occurring
> > events during the last millennium where the range of global
> >temperature
> > change exceeded that of the 20th century. During the MWP,
> >global
> > temperatures were higher than they are today. The MWP,
> >however, does
> > not show up in the hockey stick graph.
> >
> > The hockey stick has effectively been dismantled in a recent
> >study in
> > Science, however.[10] Wallace Broecker, of the
> >Lamont-Doherty Earth
> > Observatory, argues that the MWP and the LIA were indeed
> >global
> > phenomena. Referring to the hockey stick, Broecker notes, "A
> >recent,
> > widely cited reconstruction leaves the impression that the
> >20th century
> > warming was unique during the last millennium. It shows no
> >hint of the
> > Medieval Warm Period (from around 800 to 1200 A.D.) during
> >which the
> > Vikings colonized Greenland, suggesting that this warm event
> >was
> > regional rather than global. It also remains unclear why just
> >at the dawn
> > of the Industrial Revolution and before the emission of
> >substantial
> > amounts of anthropogenic [manmade] greenhouse gases, Earth's
> > temperature began to rise steeply."
> >
> >
> > Broecker reviewed several scientific studies which
> >reconstruct the Earth's
> > temperature history into the distant past using various
> >proxies. He
> > concludes, "The post-1860 natural warming was the most recent
> >in a
> > series of similar warmings spaced at roughly 1500-year
> >intervals
> > throughout the present interglacial, the Holocene."[11] In
> >other words,
> > the current warm period may just be attributable to natural
> >cycles.
> >
> >
> > Flawed Temperature Data. The National Oceanic and
> >Atmospheric
> > Administration (NOAA) claimed that the year 2000 was the
> >sixth
> > warmest since 1880. Other temperature records find less
> >warming.[12]
> > Last year was only the 14th warmest, or 9th coolest, year
> >since 1979
> > according to the satellite temperature record,[13] and only
> >the 9th
> > warmest, according to records that include only measurements
> >from
> > meteorological stations.[14]
> >
> > The NOAA data, which is cited by government officials and the
> >news
> > media, may be the least accurate, according to a study that
> >recently
> > appeared in Geophysical Research Letters.[15] The NOAA
> >datasets "are
> > a mixture of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea
> >water
> > temperatures over oceans," according to lead author Dr. John
> >Christy,
> > professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth
> >System
> > Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.
> >
> > Since actual air temperature data over many large ocean areas
> >are
> > nonexistent, the NOAA uses sea surface temperatures as a
> >"proxy,"
> > assuming that sea surface temperatures and air temperatures
> >move in
> > lock step. This is not the case, according to the data
> >compiled by
> > Christy and his colleagues at the Hadley Centre of the United
> >Kingdom's
> > Meteorological Office, who worked on the study. The
> >researchers used
> > buoy data in the tropical Pacific Ocean to compare "long-term
> >xxx xxxx xxxxyear)
> > trends for temperatures recorded one meter below the sea
> >surface and
> > three meters above it."
> >
> > What they found was a significant discrepancy. "For each
> >buoy in the
> > Eastern Pacific, the air temperatures measured at the three
> >meter height
> > showed less of a warming trend than did the same buoy's water
> > temperatures at one meter depth," the study said. The
> >difference is a
> > near-surface seawater warming trend of 0.37 degrees C per
> >decade and
> > an air temperature trend of only 0.25 degrees C per decade
> >during the
> > 20-year period tested. Replacing the sea surface
> >temperatures with the
> > air temperature data reduces the Earth's global warming trend
> >by a third,
> > from 0.19 to 0.13 degree C per decade.
> >
> > This is significant due to difficulties with reconciling the
> >various global
> > temperature data sets, particularly the discrepancy between
> >tropospheric
> > temperatures measured by satellites that show little to no
> >warming, and
> > the surface-based temperature data that show slightly more
> >warming.
> > Last year, the National Research Council stated that both
> >temperature
> > records are correct and speculated about an explanation.[16]
> >
> > This brings up another problem, however. The standard
> >explanation of
> > the greenhouse effect suggests warming occurs first five
> >kilometers
> > above the earth's surface in the atmospheric layer known as
> >the
> > troposphere. How events at the surface are connected to what
> >happens
> > high in the atmosphere is not clear, but it is believed that
> >surface
> > warming would follow tropospheric warming through climatic
> >processes
> > such as air circulation.[17] If both temperature records are
> >correct, then
> > this explanation of the greenhouse effect is wrong. Christy
> >et al. brings
> > the surface temperature data into closer agreement with the
> >satellite
> > data, suggesting that a better explanation for the
> >discrepancy is flawed
> > surface data.
> >
> > Progressive Science. At a press conference at the National
> >Press
> > Club on April 18, Mr. Jan Pronk, chairman of the Sixth
> >Conference of the
> > Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
> >Change
> > said most issues were still on the table in the ongoing Kyoto
> >negotiations
> > but the scientific basis of catastrophic global warming could
> >not be
> > questioned. That would be like going back ten years, he
> >said. This is a
> > myopic and erroneous view of science. Science is not static
> >but
> > dynamic. It reaches tentative conclusions at best, and those
> > conclusions constantly give way to new data. The IPCC is a
> >static
> > process, however. The Third Assessment Report is already
> >obsolete and
> > it has not even been released yet. With these four recent
> >studies, it may
> > be time to bid catastrophic global warming theory a warm
> >farewell.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [1] "Evidence of Rapid Global Warming Accepted by 99 Nations,"
> >Environment News Service, January 22,
> > 2001.
> > [2] Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou, "Does the
> >Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?,
> > Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82:417-32, March
> >2001.
> > [3] ftp://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/PAO/Releases/2001/01-18.htm
> > [4] "Is Globe Warming? Sure, But Far Less than Alarmists Say,"
> >Tech Central Station
> > (http://www.techcentralstation.com/BigShotFriday.asp), March 5,
> >2001.
> > [5] Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswell, "How Dry is the
> >Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for
> > Global Warming Theory," Bulletin of the American Meteorological
> >Society, 78:1xxx xxxx xxxx.
> > [6] In correspondence with Nature magazine, one of the IPCC's
> >coordinating lead authors, Thomas Stocker of
> > the Physics Institute at the University of Bern in Switzerland,
> >wrote, "First, although climate modeling has
> > advanced during the past five years, this is not the main reason
> >for the revised range of temperature
> > projections. The higher estimates of maximum warming by the year
> >2100 stem from a more realistic view of
> > sulphate aerosol emissions. The new scenarios assume emissions
> >will be reduced substantially in the coming
> > decades, as this becomes technically and economically feasible, to
> >avoid acid rain. Sulphate emissions have
> > a cooling effect, so reducing them leads to higher estimates of
> >warming." See "Climate panel looked at all
> > the evidence," Nature, 410: 299, March 15, 2001.
> > [7] Mark Z. Jacobson, "Strong radiative heating due to the mixing
> >state of black carbon in atmospheric
> > aerosols," Nature, 409: 695-72, February 8, 2001.
> > [8] James D. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Andrew Lacis, and
> >Valdir Oinas, "Global Warming in the
> > twenty-first century: An alternative scenario," Proceedings of the
> >National Academy of Sciences,
> > 97:9xxx xxxx xxxx.
> > [9] The tree ring data originated with Michael E. Mann, Raymond S.
> >Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes,
> > "Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium:
> >Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations,"
> > Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 759, March 15, 1999.
> > [10] Wallace S. Broecker, "Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?"
> >Science, 291: 1497-99, February 23,
> > 2001.
> > [11] Also see H.H. Lamb, Climate History and the Modern World, (New
> >York: Routledge, 1985), and Brian
> > Fagan, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1xxx xxxx xxxx,
> >(New York: Basic Books, 2000).
> > [12] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/2000/ann/ann.html
> > [13] http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/MSU/msusci.html
> > [14] http://www.john-daly.com/press/press-01.htm#Phil
> > [15] John R. Christy, David E. Parker, Simon J. Brown, Ian Macadam,
> >Martin Stendal, and William B. Norris,
> > "Differential Trends in Tropical Sea Surface and Atmospheric
> >Temperatures since 1979," Geophysical
> > Research Letters, 28:183.
> > [16] Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change,
> >National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.,
> > 2000.
> > [17] Richard S. Lindzen, "Climate Forecasting: When Models are
> >Qualitatively Wrong," George C. Marshall
> > Institute, Washington, D.C., 2000.
> >
> >
> >
> >
Original Filename: 1067450707.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, knutti@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: some info you'll want to have...
Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2003 13:05:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Gabi Hegerl <hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, tom crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "raymond s.bradley" <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Steve Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Gavin Schmidt <gavin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Dear Thomas, Fortunat, Reto:
You might have wanted to check w/ us first, but thanks anyway for responding to this. We've
uncovered the error in what they did. They didn't use the proxy data available on our
public ftp site, which I had pointed them too--instead they used a spreadsheet file that my
associate Scott Rutherford had prepared. In this file, most of the early series were
overprinted at later years. This resulted in the reconstruction becoming increasingly
spurious as one goes further back in time--the estimates prior to 1700 or so were rendered
meaningless. There were also some other methodological errors that will be detailed
shortly, but this was the big one.
So they will probably have to retract the paper. You can find out more about this here, on
journalist David Appell's "blog":
[1]http://www.davidappell.com/
We also have an op-ed piece going out this afternoon, further detailing the problems. Will
send that as soon as its available. I've attached a few other relevant documents, and I'm
forwarding another email I sent out to colleagues yesterday, just after I had discovered
the main problem in what they've done...
mike
______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
[2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachJournalists.re.EandEfin-revised.doc"
References
1. http://www.davidappell.com/
2. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Original Filename: 1107191864.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: imprint-ssc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: RE:
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 12:17:44 +0100
Cc: mschulz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>
Hi, just for clarification as we continue on the
St.2 proposal (you
Original Filename: 1115843111.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Polychronis Tzedakis" <P.C.Tzedakis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Rainer Zahn" <rainer.zahn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Thomas Stocker" <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Atte Korhola" <atte.korhola@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: RE: commission performance alpha 5
Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 16:25:11 +0100
Cc: <Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <Imprint-partner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <beatriz.balino@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <atle.nesje@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <oyvind.lie@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <john.birks@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <Carin.Andersson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <trond.dokken@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <ulysses.ninnemann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <Astrid.Bardgard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <richard.telford@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Dear all,
First of all a big hand for Eystein and all those who put in so much time into this task. Very disheartening to hear the outcome.
I have muych sympathy with what Rainer Zahn has said, especially on the Brussels front and the client relationships that are cultivated with EU officials.
I think that in addition to a letter to the EU, I would suggest that perhaps an editorial in NAture or something similar, outlining the growing degree of scepticism amongst scientists regarding the transparency of the EU funding process might be in order.
Chronis Tzedakis
-----Original Message-----
From: Rainer Zahn [mailto:rainer.zahn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
Sent: Wed 5/11/2005 2:47 PM
To: Thomas Stocker; Atte Korhola
Cc: Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Imprint-partner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; beatriz.balino@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; atle.nesje@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; oyvind.lie@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; john.birks@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Carin.Andersson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; trond.dokken@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; ulysses.ninnemann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Astrid.Bardgard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; richard.telford@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: commission performance alpha 5
dear Eystein, dear Imprint consortium,
I am sure I will not make many friends with what follows below. Firstly, it
surely is sad and disheartening to see our proposal going down. and there
are many issues involved some of which have been named in the recent
emails. But then there are those issues left that have not been named but
which I consider relevant if we are to make progress on the EU FWP front.
Some of these issues may and will touch a personal nerve here and there,
but let's face some of the unpleasant realities much rather than sitting
back and keeping going with business as usual, a business that soon may go
out of existence.
First, I am not convinced that Imprint was the best we could have done. On
my side I was surprised to no small extent during our London meeting to see
that those from the modeling community and other groups present obviously
had no idea why our palaeo-component (a derivative of the planned ICON IP)
was part of Imprint, and they were not overly favourable to listen and
expand their views. So in a sense, even within our own consortium there
was, perhaps still is a lack of insight and understanding as to what a
palaeo-component is about and will have to offer. In the end I am now left
with the impression that ICON would have stood a good chance to survive on
its own.
Second, as a member of the Imprint consortium I still find it difficult
today to sort through this proposal and its various components, tasks,
topics, milestones, deliverables etc. Which only tells me how ever so more
difficult it must have been for outsiders i.e., reviewers to sift through
the bits and pieces and comprehend what this is about. But I also feel that
this has to do with the concept of IPs at large as it is not an easy task
to compose an IP consortium of the dimension and wide range of expertise
envisioned by the commission. The outcome of the whole process in my view
confirms the notion that the concept of IPs has fundamentally (and to a
large degree predictably) failed. This concept reflects a substantial lack
of insight on the side of those who were, presumably still are involved in
designing research policies in the commission about what science is about
and how it works. Those parties should not be where they are, and they
certainly should not be involved in setting up FWP7
This is what I have to say about our proposal.
As for the Commission's performance it is not my impression they are living
up to their own standards that they have set up for the quality of
proposals requested. In particular the proposal evaluation process is
ridiculous and lacks any degree of substance. For instance, the reviews
that I did receive in response to my RTN proposal (submitted last year) are
mediocre at best, meaningless and useless in detail, beyond anything I
would consider expert insight, simply a waste of time and tax payers'
money. They are an insult to anybody who did contribute to and put work and
effort into that proposal. As for the Impront proposal we now are faced
with the prospect that the only IP proposal, Millennium, that is competing
with Imprint from the outset was received more favourably than our own
proposal. With this I could live were it not for the fact that in
Millennium everything is named as a strategy and work plan that we were
being advised to not do. This speaks a language of its own and to me
reflects a fundamental lack of enthusiasm, professionalism and competence
with those who give advice and organize the evaluation process. Obviously,
the vision set out by our programme manager(s) never made it to the
reviewers who seemed to follow quite different guidelines, if any.
Lastly, from what I can see around me, particularly in the Mediterranean
club, it appears more important and beneficial to spend time in Brussels
wiping door handles and leaving a professorial - directorial impression
rather than composing upbeat cutting edge science proposals. It is ever so
disheartening that within the FWP our success seems to depend more on who
we know than the quality we present. Last time when programme managerial
posts in the commission were reshuffled the primary concern around here was
that "we now lose our contacts". This is wrong, a disgrace to our community.
I have had a few conversations with colleagues who were partners in EU
proposals, both successful ones and ones that were rejected. From these
conversations I sense a growing degree of tiredness about EU science policy
and more so, about the chaotic way proposals are being solicited and then
turned down on grounds that so very obviously have nothing to do with the
science presented. There is also the notion that within the commission
climate and paleo-work has fallen from grace, for reasons not known to
many. Which brings me back to the point that perhaps we do not have the
right programme managers in place to fend our cause.
I am prepared to write a firm letter to the commission, or to contribute to
such letter, about the issues impinging on the poor performance of the
commision. I rather do that before turning entirely into a full-grown
Eurosceptic.
Rainer
Rainer Zahn, Professor de Recerca
Instituci
Original Filename: 1115887684.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Denis-Didier.Rousseau@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
To: <Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <Imprint-partner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: [Fwd: RE: commission performance alpha 5]
Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 04:48:04 +0200 (MEST)
Dear all IMPRINT colleagues,
Being away from Europe, this was a very bad news that I got this morning
listening about the rejection of IMPRINT. Eystein did a great job by being
able to gather the European paleo community under a common umbrella and he
desereves a lot of our consideration.
Concerning now the review process, I have been involved several times in
Brussels and I have been able to see the evolution of the evaluating panel
session after session.
I am not please with this evaluation and I already addressed my comments
to Andre Berger. It is not normal that entering the room where you are
supposed to meet the other "panelists" you would not know those who are
supposed to be representative of your community, this is my first comment.
Second, the way the referees are selected is somehow strange and involve a
political issue which is very sensitive as I'm sure you will understand
that a country fair representation is not enough in our field which better
involves expertise.
Third and last, having set a consortium of the leading Europe institutions
and scientists, how can you expect appropriate expertise? I have been
approached to join the evaluating panel but refused as being an IMPRINT
member to respect some ethic. If, what I wish, we all didi that way, they
one can sincerely expect the worst as I already experienced in a recent
past.
Forth, complaining to the commission is a waste of time as these
administrative people, even if this is you right, will always provide you
with arguments to justify the decision. I complain once to the director of
the programme who just retun me that the referees of my proposal were
relevant, what I know was not the case unfortunately. However I totally
support the initiative to question the commission on the way the
evaluations are performed, but also how the referees are selected.
Fifth, you all are waiting for the reviews. I agree with Rainer that the
comments that are provided are useless and in somehow offending the PIs.
This is mostly due to the review process and this again must be changed.
Furthermore what we receive is the consensus report which passed in the
European officers hands to be cleaned of any agressive sentences or words,
and must remain politically correct. So effectively these reports are
useless. It would be interesting to get also the individual reports on
which the consensus one has been established and would better show the
real work of every referee, and we would be very surprised sometimes.
Finaly to follow Thomas, Rainer and Eric, I would suggest to continue what
has been launched with IMPRINT which is to my sense unique in gathering
all the European paleo community under the same umbrella. May be the
proposal was too broad, but this was following the commission's aim. The
"Millenium" proposal benefited of several consecutive EU supports which
apparently helped a lot. Their lobbying seem to have ben very efficient,
not only in Brussels but in the journals and meetings. The Utrecht
initiative was a good one which must stop today. We have the opportunity
to gather regularly at least once during the EGU that we all are
attending, why not using such opportunity to reinforce the initiative
during such meeting?
All the very best to all of you
cheers
denis
-------- Ursprüngliche Nachricht --------
Betreff: RE: commission performance alpha 5
Von: "Polychronis Tzedakis" <P.C.Tzedakis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Datum: Mit, 11.05.2005, 17:25
An: "Rainer Zahn" <rainer.zahn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
"Thomas Stocker" <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
"Atte Korhola" <atte.korhola@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Dear all,
First of all a big hand for Eystein and all those who put in so much
time into this task. Very disheartening to hear the outcome.
I have muych sympathy with what Rainer Zahn has said, especially on the
Brussels front and the client relationships that are cultivated with EU
officials.
I think that in addition to a letter to the EU, I would suggest that
perhaps an editorial in NAture or something similar, outlining the
growing degree of scepticism amongst scientists regarding the
transparency of the EU funding process might be in order.
Chronis Tzedakis
-----Original Message-----
From: Rainer Zahn [mailto:rainer.zahn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
Sent: Wed 5/11/2005 2:47 PM
To: Thomas Stocker; Atte Korhola
Cc: Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Imprint-partner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx;
beatriz.balino@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; atle.nesje@xxxxxxxxx.xxx;
oyvind.lie@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; john.birks@xxxxxxxxx.xxx;
Carin.Andersson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; trond.dokken@xxxxxxxxx.xxx;
ulysses.ninnemann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Astrid.Bardgard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx;
richard.telford@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Subject: commission performance alpha 5
dear Eystein, dear Imprint consortium,
I am sure I will not make many friends with what follows below. Firstly,
it surely is sad and disheartening to see our proposal going down. and
there are many issues involved some of which have been named in the
recent emails. But then there are those issues left that have not been
named but which I consider relevant if we are to make progress on the
EU FWP front. Some of these issues may and will touch a personal nerve
here and there, but let's face some of the unpleasant realities much
rather than sitting back and keeping going with business as usual, a
business that soon may go out of existence.
First, I am not convinced that Imprint was the best we could have done.
On my side I was surprised to no small extent during our London meeting
to see that those from the modeling community and other groups present
obviously had no idea why our palaeo-component (a derivative of the
planned ICON IP) was part of Imprint, and they were not overly
favourable to listen and expand their views. So in a sense, even within
our own consortium there was, perhaps still is a lack of insight and
understanding as to what a palaeo-component is about and will have to
offer. In the end I am now left with the impression that ICON would
have stood a good chance to survive on its own.
Second, as a member of the Imprint consortium I still find it difficult
today to sort through this proposal and its various components, tasks,
topics, milestones, deliverables etc. Which only tells me how ever so
more difficult it must have been for outsiders i.e., reviewers to sift
through the bits and pieces and comprehend what this is about. But I
also feel that this has to do with the concept of IPs at large as it is
not an easy task to compose an IP consortium of the dimension and wide
range of expertise envisioned by the commission. The outcome of the
whole process in my view confirms the notion that the concept of IPs
has fundamentally (and to a large degree predictably) failed. This
concept reflects a substantial lack of insight on the side of those who
were, presumably still are involved in designing research policies in
the commission about what science is about and how it works. Those
parties should not be where they are, and they certainly should not be
involved in setting up FWP7
This is what I have to say about our proposal.
As for the Commission's performance it is not my impression they are
living up to their own standards that they have set up for the quality
of proposals requested. In particular the proposal evaluation process
is ridiculous and lacks any degree of substance. For instance, the
reviews that I did receive in response to my RTN proposal (submitted
last year) are mediocre at best, meaningless and useless in detail,
beyond anything I would consider expert insight, simply a waste of time
and tax payers' money. They are an insult to anybody who did contribute
to and put work and effort into that proposal. As for the Impront
proposal we now are faced with the prospect that the only IP proposal,
Millennium, that is competing with Imprint from the outset was received
more favourably than our own proposal. With this I could live were it
not for the fact that in Millennium everything is named as a strategy
and work plan that we were being advised to not do. This speaks a
language of its own and to me reflects a fundamental lack of
enthusiasm, professionalism and competence with those who give advice
and organize the evaluation process. Obviously, the vision set out by
our programme manager(s) never made it to the reviewers who seemed to
follow quite different guidelines, if any.
Lastly, from what I can see around me, particularly in the Mediterranean
club, it appears more important and beneficial to spend time in
Brussels wiping door handles and leaving a professorial - directorial
impression rather than composing upbeat cutting edge science proposals.
It is ever so disheartening that within the FWP our success seems to
depend more on who we know than the quality we present. Last time when
programme managerial posts in the commission were reshuffled the
primary concern around here was that "we now lose our contacts". This
is wrong, a disgrace to our community.
I have had a few conversations with colleagues who were partners in EU
proposals, both successful ones and ones that were rejected. From these
conversations I sense a growing degree of tiredness about EU science
policy and more so, about the chaotic way proposals are being solicited
and then turned down on grounds that so very obviously have nothing to
do with the science presented. There is also the notion that within the
commission climate and paleo-work has fallen from grace, for reasons
not known to many. Which brings me back to the point that perhaps we do
not have the right programme managers in place to fend our cause.
I am prepared to write a firm letter to the commission, or to contribute
to such letter, about the issues impinging on the poor performance of
the commision. I rather do that before turning entirely into a
full-grown Eurosceptic.
Rainer
Rainer Zahn, Professor de Recerca
Instituci
Original Filename: 1116646247.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: imprint-ssc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Urgent-next step
Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 23:30:47 +0200
Cc: stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Andr
Original Filename: 1117120511.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Ch 3
Date: Thu May 26 11:15:xxx xxxx xxxx
Kevin,
I'll broach it with the UK people. Need to consider timing in November, once we
get the comments or maybe after the ChCh meeting. Been to Boulder in Jan and Feb
before so know what to expect ! Early Feb would seem best. Not thought about
going to the AMS so won't.
A few problems with Figures today. Hopefully they will get resolved in the not too
distant future. Dave E has at least sent one email.
Seeing our granddaughter on Saturday, but should have some good time for
the Chapter on Sunday and Monday (at home).
Cheers
Phil
At 17:11 25/05/2005, you wrote:
Hi Phil
I am attaching the updated Fig 3.4.? I have also in .ps that can be converted if need
be.
Dennis has also plotted the Fu data and I'll send a version a bit later. But need to
have consistent colors.
I am encouraged that the text is getting a lot better. The FOD is approaching close to
what will be final, we should find. After that point the figs should only be updates
and minor changes, and the text is modified to respond to comments, that we will have to
address more systematically next time. The SOD does become close to final: still
subject to all the reviews and late breaking material.
Key thing is for you and me to make sure we converge, and don't do a wholesale
replacement of a section without careful checking.
I have decided not to attend AMS AGM next year in January so that I can work on the
SOD. I would be glad to invite you to come for a visit for a week and I suspect we can
also come up with some funds to help: at the price of a seminar. e.g. we could split it
by you doing airfare and we do local accommodation or vice versa? This summer Tom
Stocker is here and working with Jerry on chap 10. I think it could be worthwhile, main
question is best timing. Perhaps late Jan or early Feb? That time of year can be cold
here: usually not that much snow or if it does snow it does not last long in Boulder:
great skiing nearby if you are interested in that. Mean T in Jan is about 0C but highs
not uncommon about 10C, and have been over 20C with chinook. Cold at night. So good
idea.
Cheers
Kevin
Phil Jones wrote:
Kevin,
Things seem to be coming in. Will work on 3.5-3.7 tomorrow. 3.2 and the Appendices
now back with David. The Appendices read pretty good - lots of useful background
material. It will be shame to lose it to a web site. Once David gets these back these
should be almost good enough to go out to all on July 15 (or whenever we said).
A thought kept recurring - there must be a better way to do this ! Although the FOD
reviews will be different from the ZOD (and many more), I'm prepared to come to Boulder
for a week
in early 2006 if needed. I think I can get the money from the UK to do this. Question
is
will be it be worthwhile. Better if we were both locked away somewhere other than one
of our institutions, but then we wouldn't have the infrastructure, support (email,
printers
etc).
Anyway, give it some thought. You'll know more than I do about some much the FOD
and SOD change. Q is whether a week or a fortnight is sufficient. If we knew that a
few of the
key people in the chapter were at their desks, the text should show a marked
improvement.
Assuming here the majority of the Figures set by then - just a few need updating.
Cheers
Phil
At 17:03 24/05/2005, you wrote:
Hi Phil
Thanks for update: monday is a holiday here: Memorial Day, seems weird that Brian is
working?
My approach to the revisions at this stage is not to take the material sent and
wholesale replace it, but cautiously compare and insert if it makes sense. i.e. you and
I need to act as editors with a fairly strong hand. I suspect 3.7 may have some useful
material but it could degrade the section by further adding material that is not
especially relevant. I'll bet it does not shorten it, which is desired still.
I am clearly not on same page as Brian wrt clouds and radiation, and I am interested in
his take on it all, given the new material and changes. I am not a fan of Norris'
stuff. We have updated Fig 3.4.1 on water vapor thru 2004: the ocean trend drops to
1.2%/decade. So you can help a lot by putting your take on the 3.4 stuff: it may also
require some careful wording to accommodate different views if we can't see eye to eye.
For instance, on the dimming, the recent Pinker paper uses ISCCP and I simply don't
believe the trends from ISCCP at all. Saying Wielicki and ISCCP agree actually damns
them both. Or similarly saying Norris and ISCCP agree causes problems (this relates to
upper cloud, which Norris gets from total minus lower, but those two sets of data are
not homogeneous: there is not a lower cloud ob for every total; using means, esp zonal
means without differencing each ob potentially causes major problems).
Dennis is starting on the 3.6 figs today plus the Sahel one.
Cheers
Kevin
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [1]p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
****************
Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box 3000, (3xxx xxxx xxxx
Boulder, CO 80xxx xxxx xxxx (3xxx xxxx xxxx(fax)
Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
References
1. mailto:p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2. mailto:trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
3. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
Original Filename: 1135197791.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 15:43:11 +0000
<x-flowed>
>Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:xxx xxxx xxxx
>To: wg1-ar4-ch06@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
>X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at ucar.edu
>Subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
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>Hi Chapter 6 Friends - Just wanted to thank you all for a great IPCC
>meeting and solid progress toward the SOD of Chapter 6, as well as
>give you a report on the TS meeting that took place on Friday. I'm
>in transit, so haven't been able to see any emails, but I suspect
>Eystein is also sending some updates on what we need to be doing.
>We'll have to work fast and hard to make all the deadlines, but I
>think its safe to say that our chapter will have real impact. I want
>to personally thank you for your dedication to our team effort!
>
>PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY
>
>The TS/SPM meeting on Friday was exhausting, as appears to be
>traditional for all things IPCC. But, it was quite impressive in
>terms of how paleo was viewed by the broader WG1 team of authors.
>This is reflected in the decision to consider (without any pushing
>from me, believe it or not) several new figures from our chapter.
>Below I list these along with the others that will need refinement
>for use by the TS. Please note where I insert "ACTION ITEM" - these
>are very time sensitive assignments that should be carried out ASAP
>(i.e., before the new year where possible). Note that everything
>(i.e., figures) in the TS will also have to be in our chapter.
>
>1) the orbital box. Eystein and I have the draft completed by
>Valerie et al in New Zealand. We will read/edit (ACTION ITEM) and
>send around to the group for further editing. The TS version might
>have to be altered to reflect the broader audience, and I'm not yet
>sure what figure would best go with the TS version. I believe
>Valerie (ACTION ITEM) is exploring (with Stefan?) a nice figure that
>illustrates the mechanisms of orbital forcing.
>
>2) there will also be an model evaluation box in the TS that will
>have paleo. Once I get more feedback on this (Chap 8 is leading on
>this box), I'll connect the rest of our team with this effort, with
>Bette in the role of lead chap 6 person.
>
>3) there will a sea level box led by Chap 5. I'm not sure what the
>fig will look like in this box, but if Dick (ACTION ITEM) can
>produce his new Chap 6 sea level figure FAST, we can float it as a
>possible contributor to the TS Box figure. It would be great to get
>paleo sea level perspectives in this box!
>
>4) there will be expanded discussion of abrupt change with focus on
>paleo - Richard Alley is leading this, and I think that will be a
>real plus in making sure the discussion isn't just model based
>
>4) Keith's sites through time figure is also still a TS item. There
>will hopefully also be a fig showing the distribution of
>instrumental sites. Keith has the ACTION ITEM on his figure. Peck
>and Eystein can help get the data released to Keith and Tim if
>needed - just let us know.
>
>5) Keith's 6.8 figure will have to be worked on to find the best
>mode of presentation, and I have a separate email on this one for
>him and Tim. The TS team would like to see inserted on the fig
>(e.g., along the lower edge of the figure, perhaps) some depiction
>of how the site number used changes back in time, and some color
>coding to denote how our expert judgement suggests the implied
>confidence in the recons change back in time. I'm guessing this will
>require some phone conversations to think through with Keith (ACTION
>ITEM for Eystein, Peck and Keith).
>
>6) A NEW FIGURE - depicting inferred solar forcing over the last X
>centuries. The request is that we show Judith Lean et al's latest
>for 1600 to present. This could include the volcanic forcing too,
>but it seems more appropriate that we stick with our plan to add
>this to the expanded 6.8. We'll have to try both figs (this new one,
>and the expanded 6.8) figure w/ and w/o the volcanic series (i.e.,
>detrended multi-core average excess sulfate from each of two polar
>regions) on each fig. I think Keith/Tim gets the ACTION ITEM on all
>this figure stuff - Perhaps David (ACTION ITEM) can send Judith's
>latest solar recon to Keith?
>
>7) Expanded/modified recent forcing figureS by Fortunat (ACTION
>ITEM). One will be for Chap 6, the other will combine Chap 2 and 6
>perspectives into a single figure for the TS. I'll send a separate
>fig to Fortunat with the details, but everyone likes his new rate of
>change depiction, and the TS team also wants a ice core tropospheric
>aerosol record too (e.g., for the last couple centuries - Jean
>Jouzel thought we could do this using Greenland ice core data, and
>we'd add this to the TS fig (and either a chap 2 or 6 figure, since
>everyting in the TS has to also be in a chapter.
>
>8) A NEW FIGURE for the TS (and maybe not chapt 6, since we already
>have 6.8 and 6.10 with most of the info) should be the one of
>Keith's that we showed in our plenary talk on Thursday - the
>multi-model range of simulated change over the last 1000 (red
>shading) superimposed on our chap 6 observed record (represented by
>grey shading as in the fig we showed). Requested modifications for
>Keith/Tim (ACTION ITEM) include: a) using a 20th century ref period
>as in the current Fig 6.8, b) adding (where possible) simulations
>that include natural forcing only (and thus not enough warming in
>20th century) and c) adding one or more EMIC simulations using the
>new Lean solar recon (at least over the last 400 years, with all the
>other forcing). This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg
>thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to
>get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap
>10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but
>Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys
>doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround?
>
>9) Another NEW FIGURE (that I actually fought including since we
>don't want to be seen showing off our own stuff) of Last
>Interglacial (LIG) Change. The TS team (and Susan) really liked this
>paleo message, so we came up with a proposed scheme (which I already
>discussed with Bette - who has the ACTION ITEM) that will involve
>the inclusion of more than one LIG climate simulation, plotted with
>observations superimposed, and perhaps more than one LIG ice sheet
>reconstruction as well. Should Tarasov and Peltier be considered for
>this fig (forced by ice-core inferred LIG climate)? Are there
>others? For this figure to work, it has to be a synthesis of
>multiple studies, not just the recent Otto-Bleisner et al effort.
>
>So, that is the news - all good from the view point of chap 6
>exposure/impact, but of course, not so good in terms of the
>additional fast-turn-around work that is needed. The other tough
>issue is that - after several negotiating sessions with Susan (the
>last one with Jean Jouzel helping) - the best we could do is get our
>page limit increased from 30 to 35 pages. That doesn't sound too
>bad, except that we have to a) get all our existing material into
>less space than now (we're currently at an estimated 36 pages) AND
>b) get the new figures mentioned above in (two I think - solar, plus
>the LIG fig). We can do it, but everyone has to be thinking NOW
>about how to reduce our text.
>
>Again, many thanks for all the travel and hard work over the last
>two weeks. Also (in advance) for all the hard work coming up this
>month and the next two.
>
>Best, Peck
>--
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>University of Arizona
>Tucson, AZ 85721
>direct tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>_______________________________________________
>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list
>Wg1-ar4-ch06@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 1136413942.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Fortunat Joos <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch]
Date: Wed, 4 Jan 2006 17:32:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Anders.Levermann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Gian-Kasper Plattner <plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas Stocker <stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
<x-flowed>
Hi Fortunat and friends - I suggest that we
(Fortunat, can you do this?) ask Thomas Stocker
since he has lots of experience w/ IPCC and knows
what we're trying to do too. Is this ok?
If it's ok (and I'm guessing that it might not be
ok to use an unpublished extended solar series,
as Fortunat suggest - but it would be more
comparable to other results in the same figure
(our old 6.10)), I think scaling to Bard would be
better since this is what has been done more in
the other simulations published and in the old
Fig. 6.10 - am I correct?
If we can't scale Judith's new recon back to
1000, then we'll just have some simulated series
back to 1610.
Again, thanks Fortunat for figuring it all out.
best, peck
>Hi Peck,
>
>Thanks for your thoughts. We will try to have a complete forcing series next
>week.
>
>Stefan and Anders are you happy with time series of radiative forcings in W/m2
>for a) solar - b) volcanic - c) CO2 -d) sum of non-CO2? Is it correct that you
>do not need concentrations and burdens for individual gases and anthropogenic
>and natural (volcanic and others) aerosols?
>
>For extrapolation of the Lean series it might be possible to use the Bard et
>al., Tellus, Be-10 record as it has been used widely. Another option would be
>to use 14C-derived solar modulation (Muscheler et al). This is more
>sophisticated, but solar modulation has up-to-date not been used in climate
>models. In any case, extrapolation of the Lean
>serie might be challenged in the
>IPCC context as we are leaving the area of published results.
>
>Regards,
>
>Fortunat
>
>
>Quoting Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>:
>
>> Hi Fortunat, Stefan and gang - Have you given any
>> thought to scaling the new solar forcing
>> estimates from Lean (sent w/ this email - thanks)
>> in some way (e.g., to 14C/10Be) so that the new
>> simulations could cover the last 1000 years,
>> rather than the last 400? This would be nice
>> given that we'll plot the new runs in a fig with
>> the existing/published runs (old fig 6.10). Might
>> take a little more work for someone, but could
>> you, for example, take an old solar series used
>> in a recent simulation shown in the old Fig 6.10,
>> and calculate the amplitude reduction implied by
>> the new Lean data over the last 400 years, and
>> then apply that same reduction (assuming it's
>> relatively constant - I'm being lazy here and not
>> ready up) to the old solar forcing back to 1000
>> AD?
>>
>> Might be a stupid idea, so it's ok to say so.
>> Please let me know what you think - again, it
>> would be good if both groups could use the same
>> forcing.
>>
>> Thanks again, peck
>>
>> >Dear all,
>> >
>> >Here the data I got from Judith Lean. Please
>> >note that Judith Lean provided the data for the
>> >IPCC context. We should inform Judit of the
>> >results as requested by her and as a matter of
>> >courtesy.
>> >
>> >Considering the other forcings, we will use
>> >updated historical forcing as used for chapter
>> >10 scenario calculation based on the
>> >formulations and the assessment provided in
>> >chapter 2. We are currently in the process of
>> >compiling these series.
>> >
>> >With best regards,
>> >
>> >Fortunat
>> >--
>> >
>> > Climate and Environmental Physics,
>> > Physics Institute, University of Bern
>> > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern
>> > Phone: ++41(0xxx xxxx xxxx Fax: ++41(0xxx xxxx xxxx
>> > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/
>> >
>> >
>> >Delivered-To: joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>> >Return-Path: <jlean@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >Received: from mailhub03.unibe.ch (mailhub03.unibe.ch [::ffff:130.92.9.70])
>> > (TLS: TLSv1/SSLv3,256bits,AES256-SHA)
>> > by phkup10 with esmtp; Fri, 23 Dec 2005 22:17:45 +0100
>> > id 0003FA0D.43AC697A.000077F8
> > >Received: from localhost (scanhub02-eth0.unibe.ch [130.92.254.66])
>> > by mailhub03.unibe.ch (Postfix) with ESMTP id 304BD249D8
>> > for <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>; Fri, 23 Dec 2005 22:21:27 +0100 (CET)
>> >Received: from mailhub03.unibe.ch ([130.92.9.70])
>> > by localhost (scanhub02.unibe.ch [130.92.254.66]) (amavisd-new, port
>> 10024)
>> > with LMTP id 10xxx xxxx xxxxfor <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>;
>> > Fri, 23 Dec 2005 22:21:26 +0100 (CET)
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>> > for <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>; Fri, 23 Dec 2005 22:21:07 +0100 (CET)
> > >Received: from ccssun1.nrl.navy.mil
>(ccssun1.nrl.navy.mil [132.250.113.66])
>> > by mail2.nrl.navy.mil (8.13.4/8.13.4) with ESMTP id jBNLL2mG029848
>> > for <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>; Fri, 23 Dec 2005 16:21:xxx xxxx xxxx(EST)
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>> > by ccssun1.nrl.navy.mil (8.13.1/8.13.1) with ESMTP id jBNLKulM003512
>> > for <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>; Fri, 23 Dec 2005 16:20:xxx xxxx xxxx(EST)
>> >Message-ID: <43AC6A37.5040905@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 16:20:xxx xxxx xxxx
>> >From: Judith Lean <jlean@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.7 (Windows/20050923)
>> >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en
>> >Mime-Version: 1.0
>> >Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="=_phkupxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx"
>> >To: Fortunat Joos <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >Subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
>> >References:
>> ><a06210219bfca1bb02c99@[10.100.1.158]>
>> ><43A7680A.9090404@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> ><a06210208bfcd374f0e53@[192.168.1.5]>
>> ><43A89A68.6060702@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> ><a06210211bfcf46657cfb@[192.168.1.5]>
>> ><43AA0D0D.3080809@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> ><43AA58B3.4010206@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >In-Reply-To: <43AA58B3.4010206@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>> >X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.52
>> >X-Virus-checked: by University of Berne
>> >
>> >Dear Fortunat,
>> >
>> >Attached is a file of the new lower estimates of
>> >annual TSI since 1610, as well as references
>> >that describe how the irradiance was
>> >reconstructed. For comparison, I've also
>> >attached the earlier (GRL, 2000) reconstruction
>> >which has larger long-term variability.
>> >
>> >I can also send you monthly mean values since
>> >1880 if you would prefer those. As well, instead
>> >of the total irradiance, I can send you files of
>> >actual spectra - depending on what you want to
>> >use as input to your model I can make the
>> >spectra on a specified wavelength grid, if this
>> >would help.
>> >
>> >Let me know if you need more than just the
>> >annual TSI. As well, I'd be interested to hear
>> >about your results! (which I guess I'll be able
>> >to read in IPCC).
>> >
>> >Best wishes,
>> >Judith
>> >.
>> >Fortunat Joos wrote:
>> >
>> >>Dear Judith,
>> >>
>> >>Please allow me to contact you with regard to
>> >>your solar forcing reconstructions.
>> >>
>> >>IPCC WGI chapter 6 is planning to run a couple
>> >>of intermediate complexity models (Climber and
>> >>BernCC) with your new low solar forcing records
>> >>for comparing the impact of low and high solar
>> >>on NH temperature. Would you mind to provide us
>> >>with your most recent, published forcing
>> >>estimates as shown in chapter 2. An ascii (or
>> >>excel table) would be fine. Could you provide a
>> >>central value as well as uncertainty estimates.
>> >>The material should be fully consistent with
>> >>chapter 2 for cross-reference.
>> >>
>> >>Thank you for all your help,
>> >>
>> >>Fortunat Joos
>> >>
>> >>Stefan Rahmstorf wrote:
>> >>
>> >>>Hi Peck,
>> >>>
>> >>>Eva is ready to start CLIMBER-2 with the same
>> >>>forcings as in her paper, except for swapping
>> >>>the solar series (she has used different solar
>> >>>series in her paper anyway). That would show
>> >>>the impact of just swapping to a new solar
>> >>>reconstruction. But she can easily run with a
>> >>>full identical set of forcings as Fortunat -
>> >>>the bottom line is, whatever forcing you
>> >>>supply we can run, as long as it is given in
>> >>>some radiative forcing units (we do not have a
>> >>>model that could compute radiative forcing
> > >>>from aerosol concentrations).
>> >>>
>> >>>Cheers, Stefan
>> >>>
>> >>>Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>>>Hi Stefan - thanks. I'm not sure if we can
>> >>>>more that fast, but if David can get the new
>> >>>>solar forcing, then perhaps you could then
>> >>>>run w/ the other forcings the same as the
>> >>>>Bauer runs? I'll cc to Fortunat too, since he
>> >>>>has offered to carry out the same runs w/ the
>> >>>>Bern model - he might have the new/latest
>> >>>>Lean solar series too (I think back to 1600
>> >>>>only). It would be good to have both CLIMBER
>> >>>>(two versions) and BernCC runs with the same
>> >>>>(or very similar) forcing, so perhaps you two
> > >>>>can coordinate in European time. Keep Eystein
>> >>>>and me posted - David too, in case Fortunat
>> >>>>already has the new solar series. Thanks, Peck
>> >>>>
>> >>>>>Hi Jonathan, I got a positive response for
>> >>>>>doing those runs with both models - but it
>> >>>>>would be good to get the forcing time series
>> >>>>>we should use within a day, to start at
>> >>>>>least the slow model before the christmas
>> >>>>>holidays.
>> >>>>>
>> >>>>>Stefan
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >Fri Jul 29 17:56:xxx xxxx xxxx
>> >Total Solar Irradiance consistent with Wang et al (ApJ, 2005)
>> >Background component used in Lean (GRL, 2000) is reduced by 0.27
>> > Year 11yr Cycle 11yr+background
>> > 1610.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5469
>> > 1611.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5300
>> > 1612.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.9279
>> > 1613.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.0399
>> > 1614.xxx xxxx xxxx.4xxx xxxx xxxx.1143
>> > 1615.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8314
>> > 1616.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4148
>> > 1617.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2889
>> > 1618.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2783
>> > 1619.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3684
>> > 1620.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3645
>> > 1621.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3607
>> > 1622.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3568
>> > 1623.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3530
>> > 1624.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3121
>> > 1625.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5303
>> > 1626.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4191
>> > 1627.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3418
>> > 1628.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3518
>> > 1629.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2922
>> > 1630.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1428
>> > 1631.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1515
>> > 1632.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1183
>> > 1633.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2158
>> > 1634.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1362
>> > 1635.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1411
>> > 1636.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1080
>> > 1637.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1046
>> > 1638.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.5710
>> > 1639.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.6241
>> > 1640.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.1936
>> > 1641.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0815
>> > 1642.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.4006
>> > 1643.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.1824
>> > 1644.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1272
>> > 1645.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0454
>> > 1646.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0449
>> > 1647.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0443
>> > 1648.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0424
>> > 1649.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0399
>> > 1650.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0389
>> > 1651.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0383
>> > 1652.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0657
>> > 1653.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0439
>> > 1654.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0358
>> > 1655.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0260
>> > 1656.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0249
>> > 1657.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0199
>> > 1658.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0145
>> > 1659.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0125
>> > 1660.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0259
>> > 1661.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0178
>> > 1662.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0125
>> > 1663.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0125
>> > 1664.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0126
>> > 1665.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0127
>> > 1666.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0127
>> > 1667.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0125
>> > 1668.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0122
>> > 1669.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0122
>> > 1670.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0122
>> > 1671.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0183
>> > 1672.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0148
>> > 1673.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0122
>> > 1674.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0135
>> > 1675.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0120
>> > 1676.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0239
>> > 1677.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0134
> > > 1678.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0128
>> > 1679.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0115
>> > 1680.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0170
>> > 1681.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0115
>> > 1682.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0115
>> > 1683.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0115
>> > 1684.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0211
>> > 1685.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0117
>> > 1686.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0159
>> > 1687.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0126
>> > 1688.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0159
>> > 1689.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0146
>> > 1690.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0143
>> > 1691.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0157
>> > 1692.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0172
>> > 1693.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0177
>> > 1694.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0179
> > > 1695.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0186
>> > 1696.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0178
>> > 1697.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0178
>> > 1698.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0179
>> > 1699.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0184
>> > 1700.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0216
>> > 1701.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0236
>> > 1702.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0266
>> > 1703.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0444
>> > 1704.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0594
>> > 1705.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0752
>> > 1706.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0637
>> > 1707.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0802
>> > 1708.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0658
>> > 1709.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.0614
>> > 1710.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0634
>> > 1711.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0739
>> > 1712.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0798
>> > 1713.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.0863
>> > 1714.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1023
>> > 1715.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1294
>> > 1716.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1694
>> > 1717.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2294
>> > 1718.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1707
>> > 1719.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.3429
>> > 1720.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2859
>> > 1721.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2880
>> > 1722.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2209
>> > 1723.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1837
>> > 1724.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2681
>> > 1725.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2574
>> > 1726.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.4274
>> > 1727.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.4327
>> > 1728.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6237
>> > 1729.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3479
>> > 1730.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6605
>> > 1731.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1812
>> > 1732.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3090
>> > 1733.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1984
>> > 1734.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2086
>> > 1735.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3386
>> > 1736.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.5486
>> > 1737.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3827
>> > 1738.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3370
>> > 1739.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.5795
>> > 1740.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2811
>> > 1741.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6107
>> > 1742.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3247
>> > 1743.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2698
>> > 1744.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2137
>> > 1745.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2164
>> > 1746.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2223
>> > 1747.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2305
>> > 1748.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6548
>> > 1749.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6749
>> > 1750.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6385
>> > 1751.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.4680
>> > 1752.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4402
>> > 1753.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4220
>> > 1754.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3351
>> > 1755.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3220
>> > 1756.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3501
>> > 1757.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4734
>> > 1758.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5867
>> > 1759.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6501
>> > 1760.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6254
>> > 1761.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7898
>> > 1762.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6514
>> > 1763.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5811
>> > 1764.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5573
>> > 1765.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4065
>> > 1766.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3759
>> > 1767.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5817
>> > 1768.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.8346
>> > 1769.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.0194
>> > 1770.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.0220
>> > 1771.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9155
>> > 1772.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.8433
>> > 1773.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6243
>> > 1774.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5862
>> > 1775.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4493
>> > 1776.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.5039
>> > 1777.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6656
>> > 1778.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8955
>> > 1779.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9534
>> > 1780.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7753
> > > 1781.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.8868
>> > 1782.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6217
>> > 1783.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5284
>> > 1784.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3966
>> > 1785.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4558
>> > 1786.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7682
>> > 1787.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.9337
>> > 1788.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8801
>> > 1789.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8595
>> > 1790.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7604
>> > 1791.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6101
>> > 1792.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5961
>> > 1793.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5756
>> > 1794.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.4816
>> > 1795.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3645
>> > 1796.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3348
>> > 1797.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2817
> > > 1798.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2567
>> > 1799.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2629
>> > 1800.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3035
>> > 1801.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.5757
>> > 1802.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.4541
>> > 1803.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3218
>> > 1804.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3257
>> > 1805.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3361
>> > 1806.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2385
>> > 1807.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1710
>> > 1808.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1458
>> > 1809.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1180
>> > 1810.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1094
>> > 1811.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.1222
>> > 1812.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.1631
>> > 1813.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2117
>> > 1814.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2355
>> > 1815.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2906
>> > 1816.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.3866
>> > 1817.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3600
>> > 1818.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.3119
>> > 1819.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.2968
>> > 1820.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2410
>> > 1821.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2194
>> > 1822.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2432
>> > 1823.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2483
>> > 1824.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2893
>> > 1825.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3627
>> > 1826.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4659
>> > 1827.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.5771
>> > 1828.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6646
>> > 1829.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.6825
>> > 1830.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7235
>> > 1831.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5585
>> > 1832.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4565
>> > 1833.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3612
>> > 1834.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3966
>> > 1835.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6577
>> > 1836.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.0393
>> > 1837.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.1127
>> > 1838.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8997
>> > 1839.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.8174
>> > 1840.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7007
>> > 1841.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5490
>> > 1842.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4940
>> > 1843.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4237
>> > 1844.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4543
>> > 1845.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5820
>> > 1846.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6803
>> > 1847.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7816
>> > 1848.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9781
>> > 1849.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9691
>> > 1850.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7698
>> > 1851.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7744
>> > 1852.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6947
>> > 1853.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5848
>> > 1854.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4614
>> > 1855.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3828
>> > 1856.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3853
>> > 1857.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4946
>> > 1858.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6875
>> > 1859.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9054
>> > 1860.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9718
>> > 1861.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.8623
>> > 1862.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7120
>> > 1863.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6283
>> > 1864.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5660
>> > 1865.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4755
>> > 1866.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4119
>> > 1867.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3597
>> > 1868.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5194
>> > 1869.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7557
>> > 1870.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.9944
>> > 1871.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.9343
>> > 1872.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8876
>> > 1873.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6866
>> > 1874.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5582
>> > 1875.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4095
>> > 1876.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3593
>> > 1877.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3596
>> > 1878.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3309
>> > 1879.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3533
>> > 1880.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5000
>> > 1881.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6443
>> > 1882.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6676
>> > 1883.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7147
> > > 1884.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6166
>> > 1885.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5070
>> > 1886.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3417
>> > 1887.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.2982
>> > 1888.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2628
>> > 1889.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2344
>> > 1890.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2690
>> > 1891.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5204
>> > 1892.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6190
>> > 1893.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7600
>> > 1894.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8553
>> > 1895.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7390
>> > 1896.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5581
>> > 1897.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4126
>> > 1898.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3899
>> > 1899.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3381
>> > 1900.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3074
> > > 1901.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2292
>> > 1902.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.2378
>> > 1903.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4479
>> > 1904.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7180
>> > 1905.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5291
>> > 1906.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7255
>> > 1907.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6097
>> > 1908.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6748
>> > 1909.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.5642
>> > 1910.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.4309
>> > 1911.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3473
>> > 1912.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.3010
>> > 1913.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.3175
>> > 1914.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3844
>> > 1915.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.6890
>> > 1916.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.8990
>> > 1917.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.0480
>> > 1918.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.0096
>> > 1919.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.7802
>> > 1920.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6178
>> > 1921.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.5127
>> > 1922.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.3948
>> > 1923.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4265
>> > 1924.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.4581
>> > 1925.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.6622
>> > 1926.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7633
>> > 1927.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.9468
>> > 1928.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.8245
>> > 1929.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7833
>> > 1930.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.7655
>> > 1931.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.6436
>> > 1932.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.5364
>> > 1933.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.4156
>> > 1934.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.5275
>> > 1935.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.7439
>> > 1936.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.1333
>> > 1937.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.0676
>> > 1938.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.0031
>> > 1939.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.9868
>> > 1940.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.9242
>> > 1941.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.8451
>> > 1942.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7419
>> > 1943.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.5841
>> > 1944.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6140
>> > 1945.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.8810
>> > 1946.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.9791
>> > 1947.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2185
>> > 1948.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.3490
>> > 1949.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2555
>> > 1950.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.0131
>> > 1951.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7765
>> > 1952.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7676
>> > 1953.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6284
>> > 1954.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6564
>> > 1955.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7773
>> > 1956.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.3109
>> > 1957.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6681
>> > 1958.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6328
>> > 1959.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.3828
>> > 1960.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2767
>> > 1961.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.9199
>> > 1962.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7484
>> > 1963.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.6963
>> > 1964.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.6976
>> > 1965.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7341
>> > 1966.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.9178
>> > 1967.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.1143
>> > 1968.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.1644
>> > 1969.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2476
>> > 1970.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2426
>> > 1971.xxx xxxx xxxx.9xxx xxxx xxxx.9580
>> > 1972.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.0525
>> > 1973.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.7991
>> > 1974.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7271
>> > 1975.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.5345
>> > 1976.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6453
>> > 1977.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.8331
>> > 1978.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2747
>> > 1979.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6348
>> > 1980.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6482
>> > 1981.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6951
>> > 1982.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2859
>> > 1983.xxx xxxx xxxx.1xxx xxxx xxxx.1992
>> > 1984.xxx xxxx xxxx.8xxx xxxx xxxx.8103
>> > 1985.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6416
>> > 1986.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6379
> > > 1987.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7899
>> > 1988.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.0826
>> > 1989.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6479
>> > 1990.xxx xxxx xxxx.5xxx xxxx xxxx.5533
>> > 1991.xxx xxxx xxxx.4xxx xxxx xxxx.4457
>> > 1992.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.3021
>> > 1993.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.0286
>> > 1994.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7971
>> > 1995.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6996
>> > 1996.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6121
>> > 1997.xxx xxxx xxxx.7xxx xxxx xxxx.7399
>> > 1998.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.1021
>> > 1999.xxx xxxx xxxx.3xxx xxxx xxxx.3851
>> > 2000.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6654
>> > 2001.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6022
>> > 2002.xxx xxxx xxxx.6xxx xxxx xxxx.6807
>> > 2003.xxx xxxx xxxx.2xxx xxxx xxxx.2461
> > > 2004.xxx xxxx xxxx.0xxx xxxx xxxx.0668
>> >
>> >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Wang_etal_2005 3.pdf (PDF /
Original Filename: 1138398400.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Gian-Kasper Plattner <plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
Subject: Bern2.5CC IPCC-AR4 millennium simulations
Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 16:46:40 +0100
Reply-to: plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Cc: Fortunat Joos <joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Anders Levermann <levermann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Eva Bauer <eva.bauer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Christoph Raible <raible@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
<x-flowed>
Dear all,
Please find attached the Bern2.5CC model output for the IPCC-AR4
millenium simulations, all spanning the period from 1xxx xxxx xxxxAD. Some
plots including a preliminary comparison between CLIMBER-2 and Bern2.5CC
results are additionally included (see infos below).
1. The following Bern2.5CC files are attached (with the simulation tag
as specified in Fortunat's readme document):
Simulation B1.1: Bern2.5CC_bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B1.2: Bern2.5CC_bard25_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B2 : Bern2.5CC_WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B3.1: Bern2.5CC_bard08_volcCrow_CO2_anthr0_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B3.2: Bern2.5CC_bard25_volcCrow_CO2_anthr0_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B3.3: Bern2.5CC_WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_anthr0_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
Simulation B4 : Bern2.5CC_ctrl_1xxx xxxx xxxx_ar4.dat
The variables stored are: year AD, globally averaged surface air
temperature, and northern hemispheric and southern hemispheric surface
air temperature. The most important information about model setup and
references is included in the extended header in each file. Please note
that the information on the forcing timeseries applied are specified in
the filename only!
Please let me know if something is unclear or if you want additional
informations about these simulations in particular or the Bern2.5CC
model in general. I can also provide more output variables if desired
(such as e.g. MOC, Sea level, ...).
2. In addition, the following plots with CLIMBER-2 and Bern2.5CC results
are attached:
Dgmairtnorm_millenium_Bern2.5CC-CLIMBER2_1000_1998_ipccar4.eps
Dgmairtnorm_millenium_Bern2.5CC-CLIMBER2_offset0.8_1000_1998_ipccar4.eps
Dgmairtnorm_millenium_Bern2.5CC_1000_1998_ipccar4.eps
Dgmairtnorm_millenium_CLIMBER2_1000_1998_ipccar4.eps
All these plots show the anomaly in global mean surface air temperature
with respect to the value in year 1001AD from either CLIMBER-2,
Bern2.5CC, or both. Let me know if you have questions or comments about
the plots.
With best regards,
Gian-Kasper
--
**************************************
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Climate and Environmental Physics
Physics Institute, University of Bern
Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern
Phone ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~plattner
**************************************
</x-flowed>
# 91
# IPCC AR4 Millenium Runs output (vary solar forcing)
# +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
#
# Model: Bern2.5CC version with active C-cycle
# --------------------------------------------
# Prescribed forcing timeseries as described in file
# readme_doRuns_IPCC_Chap6_millennium_21jan06.txt
# provided by F. Joos, University of Bern.
#
# Contact:
# --------
# Gian-Kasper Plattner
# Climate and Environmental Physics
# Physics Institute, University of Bern
# Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
# plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
# http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~plattner/
# tel: ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
# fax: ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
#
# Some model setup informations:
# ------------------------------
# All runs with horizontal/vertical diffusion
#
# Run with standard ocean parameters
# as used in Plattner et al. 2001/2002
# with Kv (diffusivity) 4*10^-5 m2/s
#
# Climate sens. set to ~ 3.2 degrees C
# parameterized see Knutti et al. (Clim. Dyn. 2003)
#
# Model version is annual mean.
#
# No radiation code, CO2 radiative forcing calculated
# for as RF=5.35*ln(CO2/CO2_preind),
# Non-co2 radiative forcing prescribed according to
# Joos et al. GBC 2001 with updates for solar forcing
#
# More model description:
# -----------------------
# Zonally averaged dynamical ocean with 3 basins and
# Southern Ocean, zonally averaged one layer energy
# and moisture balance atmosphere, thermodynamic
# sea ice (Stocker et al., J. Climate 1992).
#
# Carbon cycle components: Ocean/Atm/Terr.biosphere;
# Ocean carbon cycle is a description of the cycles
# of organic carbon and CaCO3 (Marchal et al., Tellus
# Tellus B), based on Redfield approach using PO4 as
# biolimiting nutrient.
#
# Land Biota: Lund-Jena-Postdam Dynamical Global
# Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVMxxx xxxx xxxx
# at GCM resolution (Gerber et al. 2003, Climate
# Dynamics; Sitch et al. 2003, Global Change Biology)
#
# LPJ forced by Cramer/Leemans annual mean
# climatology plus interannual climate variability
# from Hadley simulation (30-recycled climate) plus
# changes in the fields of surface temperature,
# precipitation, and cloudcover as simulated with the
# Impulse-EOF version of ECHAM-3/LSG in response to
# projected radiative forcing changes.
#
# Land use changes are not explicitly considered.
#
# Impact of climate change on terrestrial C-storage
# included
#
# References:
# -----------
# Carbon cycle Ocean: Marchal et al., Tellus 1998
# Carbon cycle Terr. Bio: Sitch et al., GCB 2003
# Gerber et al., Clim. Dyn. 2003
# Ccycle-climate feedbacks and global warming:
# Plattner et al., Tellus 2001
# Plattner et al., GBC 2002
# Non-CO2 forcing: Joos et al., GBC 2001
# Climate model: Stocker et al., J. Climate 1992
# Sea level: Knutti et al., J. Climate 2000
# Global warming Physics: Knutti et al., Nature 2002
# Knutti et al., Cl. Dyn. 2003
# and refs therein.
#
# Output columns:
# ---------------
# Time (yr AD)
# Global mean air temperature (deg Cxxx xxxx xxxx
# NH-averaged air temperature (deg Cxxx xxxx xxxx
# SH-averaged air temperature (deg Cxxx xxxx xxxx
0.100100E+04 0.159155E+02 0.165835E+02 0.152475E+02
0.100200E+04 0.159209E+02 0.165892E+02 0.152525E+02
0.100300E+04 0.159252E+02 0.165938E+02 0.152567E+02
0.100400E+04 0.158977E+02 0.165611E+02 0.152344E+02
0.100500E+04 0.158655E+02 0.165220E+02 0.152089E+02
0.100600E+04 0.158774E+02 0.165361E+02 0.152187E+02
0.100700E+04 0.158992E+02 0.165626E+02 0.152358E+02
0.100800E+04 0.159109E+02 0.165768E+02 0.152449E+02
0.100900E+04 0.159171E+02 0.165843E+02 0.152500E+02
0.101000E+04 0.159213E+02 0.165891E+02 0.152535E+02
0.101100E+04 0.159242E+02 0.165924E+02 0.152560E+02
0.101200E+04 0.159263E+02 0.165946E+02 0.152579E+02
0.101300E+04 0.159279E+02 0.165964E+02 0.152593E+02
0.101400E+04 0.159292E+02 0.165979E+02 0.152606E+02
0.101500E+04 0.158213E+02 0.164710E+02 0.151715E+02
0.101600E+04 0.157214E+02 0.163645E+02 0.150782E+02
0.101700E+04 0.157650E+02 0.164064E+02 0.151236E+02
0.101800E+04 0.158283E+02 0.164797E+02 0.151770E+02
0.101900E+04 0.158570E+02 0.165118E+02 0.152022E+02
0.102000E+04 0.158701E+02 0.165312E+02 0.152089E+02
0.102100E+04 0.158780E+02 0.165447E+02 0.152113E+02
0.102200E+04 0.158856E+02 0.165546E+02 0.152167E+02
0.102300E+04 0.158920E+02 0.165619E+02 0.152220E+02
0.102400E+04 0.158971E+02 0.165676E+02 0.152267E+02
0.102500E+04 0.159014E+02 0.165720E+02 0.152307E+02
0.102600E+04 0.157770E+02 0.164254E+02 0.151285E+02
0.102700E+04 0.156600E+02 0.162963E+02 0.150237E+02
0.102800E+04 0.157085E+02 0.163461E+02 0.150709E+02
0.102900E+04 0.157839E+02 0.164324E+02 0.151353E+02
0.103000E+04 0.158211E+02 0.164751E+02 0.151670E+02
0.103100E+04 0.158403E+02 0.164997E+02 0.151808E+02
0.103200E+04 0.158500E+02 0.165164E+02 0.151835E+02
0.103300E+04 0.158594E+02 0.165285E+02 0.151903E+02
0.103400E+04 0.158673E+02 0.165375E+02 0.151971E+02
0.103500E+04 0.158737E+02 0.165443E+02 0.152032E+02
0.103600E+04 0.158791E+02 0.165496E+02 0.152085E+02
0.103700E+04 0.158835E+02 0.165539E+02 0.152131E+02
0.103800E+04 0.158873E+02 0.165574E+02 0.152171E+02
0.103900E+04 0.158904E+02 0.165603E+02 0.152206E+02
0.104000E+04 0.158931E+02 0.165627E+02 0.152235E+02
0.104100E+04 0.158954E+02 0.165646E+02 0.152261E+02
0.104200E+04 0.158973E+02 0.165663E+02 0.152284E+02
0.104300E+04 0.158990E+02 0.165676E+02 0.152303E+02
0.104400E+04 0.159004E+02 0.165687E+02 0.152320E+02
0.104500E+04 0.159016E+02 0.165697E+02 0.152335E+02
0.104600E+04 0.159027E+02 0.165706E+02 0.152348E+02
0.104700E+04 0.159038E+02 0.165715E+02 0.152361E+02
0.104800E+04 0.159047E+02 0.165722E+02 0.152372E+02
0.104900E+04 0.159055E+02 0.165729E+02 0.152382E+02
0.105000E+04 0.159063E+02 0.165735E+02 0.152392E+02
0.105100E+04 0.159070E+02 0.165740E+02 0.152400E+02
0.105200E+04 0.159077E+02 0.165745E+02 0.152409E+02
0.105300E+04 0.159083E+02 0.165750E+02 0.152416E+02
0.105400E+04 0.159089E+02 0.165754E+02 0.152423E+02
0.105500E+04 0.159095E+02 0.165759E+02 0.152431E+02
0.105600E+04 0.159101E+02 0.165764E+02 0.152438E+02
0.105700E+04 0.159107E+02 0.165769E+02 0.152445E+02
0.105800E+04 0.157526E+02 0.163976E+02 0.151075E+02
0.105900E+04 0.155681E+02 0.161824E+02 0.149539E+02
0.106000E+04 0.157024E+02 0.162482E+02 0.151566E+02
0.106100E+04 0.158714E+02 0.163711E+02 0.153716E+02
0.106200E+04 0.159064E+02 0.163799E+02 0.154328E+02
0.106300E+04 0.158912E+02 0.163588E+02 0.154235E+02
0.106400E+04 0.159282E+02 0.164062E+02 0.154501E+02
0.106500E+04 0.159701E+02 0.164636E+02 0.154766E+02
0.106600E+04 0.159940E+02 0.164998E+02 0.154882E+02
0.106700E+04 0.160082E+02 0.165240E+02 0.154924E+02
0.106800E+04 0.160205E+02 0.165424E+02 0.154986E+02
0.106900E+04 0.160272E+02 0.165572E+02 0.154971E+02
0.107000E+04 0.160326E+02 0.165692E+02 0.154960E+02
0.107100E+04 0.160368E+02 0.165792E+02 0.154944E+02
0.107200E+04 0.160401E+02 0.165874E+02 0.154927E+02
0.107300E+04 0.160427E+02 0.165944E+02 0.154910E+02
0.107400E+04 0.160449E+02 0.166004E+02 0.154894E+02
0.107500E+04 0.160467E+02 0.166055E+02 0.154880E+02
0.107600E+04 0.160483E+02 0.166098E+02 0.154867E+02
0.107700E+04 0.160495E+02 0.166134E+02 0.154855E+02
0.107800E+04 0.160504E+02 0.166164E+02 0.154844E+02
0.107900E+04 0.160513E+02 0.166191E+02 0.154835E+02
0.108000E+04 0.160218E+02 0.165851E+02 0.154584E+02
0.108100E+04 0.159894E+02 0.165469E+02 0.154319E+02
0.108200E+04 0.160000E+02 0.165607E+02 0.154393E+02
0.108300E+04 0.160202E+02 0.165871E+02 0.154533E+02
0.108400E+04 0.160222E+02 0.166017E+02 0.154427E+02
0.108500E+04 0.160174E+02 0.166096E+02 0.154252E+02
0.108600E+04 0.160121E+02 0.166147E+02 0.154095E+02
0.108700E+04 0.159660E+02 0.166182E+02 0.153138E+02
0.108800E+04 0.159316E+02 0.166197E+02 0.152435E+02
0.108900E+04 0.159111E+02 0.166198E+02 0.152025E+02
0.109000E+04 0.158969E+02 0.166188E+02 0.151750E+02
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0.184200E+04 0.157738E+02 0.163266E+02 0.152209E+02
0.184300E+04 0.157718E+02 0.163414E+02 0.152023E+02
0.184400E+04 0.157430E+02 0.163138E+02 0.151721E+02
0.184500E+04 0.157721E+02 0.163440E+02 0.152002E+02
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0.185200E+04 0.157438E+02 0.164741E+02 0.150135E+02
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0.186300E+04 0.157612E+02 0.164779E+02 0.150445E+02
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0.186700E+04 0.157723E+02 0.164762E+02 0.150684E+02
0.186800E+04 0.157763E+02 0.164782E+02 0.150745E+02
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0.187200E+04 0.158138E+02 0.165140E+02 0.151136E+02
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0.187600E+04 0.158160E+02 0.165116E+02 0.151204E+02
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0.187800E+04 0.158163E+02 0.165108E+02 0.151218E+02
0.187900E+04 0.158174E+02 0.165118E+02 0.151230E+02
0.188000E+04 0.158205E+02 0.165152E+02 0.151257E+02
0.188100E+04 0.158262E+02 0.165218E+02 0.151305E+02
0.188200E+04 0.158323E+02 0.165290E+02 0.151357E+02
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0.188400E+04 0.155552E+02 0.162176E+02 0.148927E+02
0.188500E+04 0.156085E+02 0.162716E+02 0.149454E+02
0.188600E+04 0.156927E+02 0.163696E+02 0.150159E+02
0.188700E+04 0.157312E+02 0.164129E+02 0.150494E+02
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0.188900E+04 0.157602E+02 0.164547E+02 0.150657E+02
0.189000E+04 0.157706E+02 0.164679E+02 0.150734E+02
0.189100E+04 0.157826E+02 0.164819E+02 0.150833E+02
0.189200E+04 0.157959E+02 0.164973E+02 0.150946E+02
0.189300E+04 0.158088E+02 0.165119E+02 0.151057E+02
0.189400E+04 0.158210E+02 0.165257E+02 0.151164E+02
0.189500E+04 0.158304E+02 0.165361E+02 0.151248E+02
0.189600E+04 0.158351E+02 0.165409E+02 0.151292E+02
0.189700E+04 0.158362E+02 0.165417E+02 0.151308E+02
0.189800E+04 0.158366E+02 0.165416E+02 0.151316E+02
0.189900E+04 0.158373E+02 0.165421E+02 0.151325E+02
0.190000E+04 0.158379E+02 0.165425E+02 0.151333E+02
0.190100E+04 0.158379E+02 0.165424E+02 0.151335E+02
0.190200E+04 0.157089E+02 0.164009E+02 0.150169E+02
0.190300E+04 0.155666E+02 0.162342E+02 0.148989E+02
0.190400E+04 0.156233E+02 0.162943E+02 0.149522E+02
0.190500E+04 0.157090E+02 0.163933E+02 0.150246E+02
0.190600E+04 0.157524E+02 0.164431E+02 0.150618E+02
0.190700E+04 0.157604E+02 0.164561E+02 0.150647E+02
0.190800E+04 0.157641E+02 0.164641E+02 0.150641E+02
0.190900E+04 0.157846E+02 0.164886E+02 0.150805E+02
0.191000E+04 0.157986E+02 0.165048E+02 0.150923E+02
0.191100E+04 0.158060E+02 0.165127E+02 0.150993E+02
0.191200E+04 0.157299E+02 0.164230E+02 0.150368E+02
0.191300E+04 0.156573E+02 0.163470E+02 0.149677E+02
0.191400E+04 0.156577E+02 0.163447E+02 0.149707E+02
0.191500E+04 0.156980E+02 0.163862E+02 0.150098E+02
0.191600E+04 0.157493E+02 0.164422E+02 0.150565E+02
0.191700E+04 0.157825E+02 0.164811E+02 0.150839E+02
0.191800E+04 0.158015E+02 0.165074E+02 0.150956E+02
0.191900E+04 0.158147E+02 0.165230E+02 0.151064E+02
0.192000E+04 0.158217E+02 0.165301E+02 0.151132E+02
0.192100E+04 0.158256E+02 0.165334E+02 0.151179E+02
0.192200E+04 0.158278E+02 0.165345E+02 0.151210E+02
0.192300E+04 0.158298E+02 0.165355E+02 0.151240E+02
0.192400E+04 0.157817E+02 0.164783E+02 0.150852E+02
0.192500E+04 0.157295E+02 0.164157E+02 0.150433E+02
0.192600E+04 0.157652E+02 0.164664E+02 0.150641E+02
0.192700E+04 0.158039E+02 0.165099E+02 0.150979E+02
0.192800E+04 0.158210E+02 0.165249E+02 0.151171E+02
0.192900E+04 0.158315E+02 0.165354E+02 0.151276E+02
0.193000E+04 0.158391E+02 0.165430E+02 0.151352E+02
0.193100E+04 0.158441E+02 0.165476E+02 0.151406E+02
0.193200E+04 0.158462E+02 0.165489E+02 0.151435E+02
0.193300E+04 0.158463E+02 0.165479E+02 0.151446E+02
0.193400E+04 0.158470E+02 0.165478E+02 0.151462E+02
0.193500E+04 0.158515E+02 0.165522E+02 0.151508E+02
0.193600E+04 0.158611E+02 0.165627E+02 0.151596E+02
0.193700E+04 0.158713E+02 0.165738E+02 0.151687E+02
0.193800E+04 0.158771E+02 0.165798E+02 0.151744E+02
0.193900E+04 0.158805E+02 0.165829E+02 0.151782E+02
0.194000E+04 0.158829E+02 0.165847E+02 0.151810E+02
0.194100E+04 0.158838E+02 0.165850E+02 0.151826E+02
0.194200E+04 0.158832E+02 0.165835E+02 0.151829E+02
0.194300E+04 0.158808E+02 0.165800E+02 0.151816E+02
0.194400E+04 0.158785E+02 0.165766E+02 0.151803E+02
0.194500E+04 0.158803E+02 0.165782E+02 0.151823E+02
0.194600E+04 0.158856E+02 0.165840E+02 0.151871E+02
0.194700E+04 0.158926E+02 0.165918E+02 0.151934E+02
0.194800E+04 0.159012E+02 0.166013E+02 0.152010E+02
0.194900E+04 0.159076E+02 0.166083E+02 0.152070E+02
0.195000E+04 0.159090E+02 0.166092E+02 0.152088E+02
0.195100E+04 0.159057E+02 0.166046E+02 0.152068E+02
0.195200E+04 0.159016E+02 0.165992E+02 0.152041E+02
0.195300E+04 0.158983E+02 0.165947E+02 0.152018E+02
0.195400E+04 0.158953E+02 0.165910E+02 0.151997E+02
0.195500E+04 0.158951E+02 0.165904E+02 0.151999E+02
0.195600E+04 0.158857E+02 0.165791E+02 0.151922E+02
0.195700E+04 0.158874E+02 0.165809E+02 0.151940E+02
0.195800E+04 0.159090E+02 0.166061E+02 0.152120E+02
0.195900E+04 0.159212E+02 0.166203E+02 0.152222E+02
0.196000E+04 0.159246E+02 0.166236E+02 0.152256E+02
0.196100E+04 0.159074E+02 0.166029E+02 0.152119E+02
0.196200E+04 0.158797E+02 0.165698E+02 0.151895E+02
0.196300E+04 0.158506E+02 0.165356E+02 0.151656E+02
0.196400E+04 0.158127E+02 0.164970E+02 0.151284E+02
0.196500E+04 0.157605E+02 0.164380E+02 0.150830E+02
0.196600E+04 0.157488E+02 0.164254E+02 0.150721E+02
0.196700E+04 0.157656E+02 0.164461E+02 0.150852E+02
0.196800E+04 0.157688E+02 0.164506E+02 0.150869E+02
0.196900E+04 0.157444E+02 0.164232E+02 0.150657E+02
0.197000E+04 0.157400E+02 0.164187E+02 0.150613E+02
0.197100E+04 0.157682E+02 0.164519E+02 0.150845E+02
0.197200E+04 0.157945E+02 0.164808E+02 0.151082E+02
0.197300E+04 0.158068E+02 0.164936E+02 0.151200E+02
0.197400E+04 0.158017E+02 0.164869E+02 0.151165E+02
0.197500E+04 0.157696E+02 0.164485E+02 0.150908E+02
0.197600E+04 0.157467E+02 0.164213E+02 0.150720E+02
0.197700E+04 0.157658E+02 0.164439E+02 0.150877E+02
0.197800E+04 0.157938E+02 0.164771E+02 0.151104E+02
0.197900E+04 0.158134E+02 0.165001E+02 0.151267E+02
0.198000E+04 0.158318E+02 0.165211E+02 0.151425E+02
0.198100E+04 0.158499E+02 0.165415E+02 0.151582E+02
0.198200E+04 0.157715E+02 0.164493E+02 0.150938E+02
0.198300E+04 0.156124E+02 0.162730E+02 0.149517E+02
0.198400E+04 0.155485E+02 0.161923E+02 0.149046E+02
0.198500E+04 0.156109E+02 0.162601E+02 0.149617E+02
0.198600E+04 0.158011E+02 0.163328E+02 0.152694E+02
0.198700E+04 0.158724E+02 0.163760E+02 0.153688E+02
0.198800E+04 0.159084E+02 0.164078E+02 0.154090E+02
0.198900E+04 0.159455E+02 0.164509E+02 0.154401E+02
0.199000E+04 0.159758E+02 0.164907E+02 0.154609E+02
0.199100E+04 0.159382E+02 0.164510E+02 0.154255E+02
0.199200E+04 0.157860E+02 0.162794E+02 0.152926E+02
0.199300E+04 0.156819E+02 0.161604E+02 0.152034E+02
0.199400E+04 0.157312E+02 0.162260E+02 0.152365E+02
0.199500E+04 0.157990E+02 0.163122E+02 0.152857E+02
0.199600E+04 0.158415E+02 0.163674E+02 0.153155E+02
0.199700E+04 0.158711E+02 0.164086E+02 0.153337E+02
0.199800E+04 0.158986E+02 0.164463E+02 0.153509E+02
# 91
# IPCC AR4 Millenium Runs output (vary solar forcing)
# +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
#
# Model: Bern2.5CC version with active C-cycle
# --------------------------------------------
# Prescribed forcing timeseries as described in file
# readme_doRuns_IPCC_Chap6_millennium_21jan06.txt
# provided by F. Joos, University of Bern.
#
# Contact:
# --------
# Gian-Kasper Plattner
# Climate and Environmental Physics
# Physics Institute, University of Bern
# Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
# plattner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
# http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~plattner/
# tel: ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
# fax: ++41 (0xxx xxxx xxxx
#
# Some model setup informations:
# ------------------------------
# All runs with horizontal/vertical diffusion
#
# Run with standard ocean parameters
# as used in Plattner et al. 2001/2002
# with Kv (diffusivity) 4*10^-5 m2/s
#
# Climate sens. set to ~ 3.2 degrees C
# parameterized see Knutti et al. (Clim. Dyn. 2003)
#
# Model version is annual mean.
#
# No radiation code, CO2 radiative forcing calculated
# for as RF=5.35*ln(CO2/CO2_preind),
# Non-co2 radiative forcing prescribed according to
# Joos et al. GBC 2001 with updates for solar forcing
#
# More model description:
# -----------------------
# Zonally averaged dynamical ocean with 3 basins and
# Southern Ocean, zonally averaged one layer energy
# and moisture balance atmosphere, thermodynamic
# sea ice (Stocker et al., J. Climate 1992).
#
# Carbon cycle components: Ocean/Atm/Terr.biosphere;
# Ocean carbon cycle is a description of the cycles
# of organic carbon and CaCO3 (Marchal et al., Tellus
# Tellus B), based on Redfield approach using PO4 as
# biolimiting nutrient.
#
# Land Biota: Lund-Jena-Postdam Dynamical Global
# Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVMxxx xxxx xxxx
# at GCM resolution (Gerber et al. 2003, Climate
# Dynamics; Sitch et al. 2003, Global Change Biology)
#
# LPJ forced by Cramer/Leemans annual mean
# climatology plus interannual climate variability
# from Hadley simulation (30-recycled climate) plus
# changes in the fields of surface temperature,
# precipitation, and cloudcover as simulated with
Original Filename: 1169238969.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Susan Solomon <ssolomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Susan Solomon <Susan.Solomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Isaac Held <Isaac.Held@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ronald Stouffer <Ronald.Stouffer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter lemke <plemke@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-clas] Shorter presentations at Paris
Date: Fri Jan 19 15:36:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Melinda_Tignor <tignor@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Martin Manning <mmanning@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Melinda.Marquis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Susan
This is very clear and very useful Thanks
Keith
At 15:21 19/01/2007, Susan Solomon wrote:
Keith, Peter, Isaac, Ron,
Thanks to all of you for helping out.
Keith, the audience for the presentations is the policy makers who will be present in
Paris. As you have already seen from the comments, many of them are not scientists. The
presentations need to be pitched at a non-scientist level. A number of the policy
people will be lawyers, and a number will be legalistically looking to find anything
that can advance their position. Most of them will however just be looking to ask
questions and to better understand, and many will be constructive in how they use the
information provided. So it is quite a mix. They should not be given input that
distracts from the job at hand. Therefore, these presentations should not bring in new
issues not raised in the comments, figures from material outside the report, etc.
I hasten to say that all of us hope there will not be big problems in going through the
presentations. The presentations are being carefully prepared by excellent people, so
my expectation would be for quite minor changes.
All of the above has been discussed with those preparing the presentations, so a primary
role in co-chairing this session is to lend a constructively critical eye, seeking to
advance the goal of clarity, conciseness, and sticking to the report rather than
straying, if needed. The outcome is not a formal approval statement of the
presentation. The outcome is to guide the collective subgroup to a *clear* consensus on
what should be changed before the presentation is passed in to the TSU. If there are
things that a majority of the group wants to see changed but others do not, you will
have a chairman's job to do in finding a solution everyone can live with. It would
probably be helpful if you could keep some notes on the agreed changes, since that will
help you ensure that you have been clear enough in stating the conclusion. Too often
there is a thrash and no closure. A good chair gets agreement with the group.
Thanks again,
Susan
At 1:00 PM +0000 1/19/07, Keith Briffa wrote:
Hi Susan et al
sorry for delayed response - just back from Paris (or so I originally thought as the
meeting I was at turned out to be 3 hours away by train ). I too am happy to act as you
request, though I am still uncertain as to who the specific audience will be and more
particularly, what you expect as an outcome of the session (a formal approval statement
or recommendation for amendments?).
cheers
Keith
At 00:31 18/01/2007, Susan Solomon wrote:
Dear Peter, Isaac, Ron, and Keith
I am writing to let you know that the agenda for our C/LA meeting to take place in Paris
on Saturday and Sunday Jan 27/28 will have your names listed for a proposed role, and I
hope you will be able to accept.
At the end of the second day of the meeting, we will go over the set of longer 'science
presentations' that will be given informally during the lunchtime sessions. There will
be two parallel sessions from 4-6 pm on Sunday, and I am hoping that Peter/Keith can
chair one dealing with drivers, obs, and paleo, whle Ron and Isaac can chair one on
attribution/sea level/projections.
Earlier on Sat/Sun we will also have gone over the shorter formal presentations that
will be used to start each section of the SPM during the meeting.
See below for some more information CLAs requested for preparation of the shorter
presentations.
An important point is that the short and long presentations should be consistent and
should strongly support the SPM approval process (see below).
We are seeking tough chairmen who could a) keep to a strict time schedule and avoid
slippage; b) ensure that a clear statement is made about what the group conclusion is
(e.g., if the group feels that a particular presentation should be changed, that needs
to be made clear to the person who will hand in the final presentation to the TSU); and
c) helps the group to focus on the need for these presentations to communicate with
policy people (not overly technical) and help address the comments received (not to
digress). In short, to be tough, fair, constructive, and well organized.
Thanks in advance for considering helping with this. If you feel you cannot do it, let
me know but I will assume silence is agreement to serve.
best regards,
Susan
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 17:08:xxx xxxx xxxx
From: Susan Solomon <Susan.Solomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: wg1-ar4-clas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Cc: zhenlin chen <cdccc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Martin.Manning@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: [Wg1-ar4-clas] Shorter presentations at Paris
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Dear CLAs,
We are writing to address the two types of presentations (shorter and longer) that are
to be given in Paris. A number of you have asked about the shorter presentations in
particular and we want to clarify that here.
We would like to ask the people who served as section coordinators for each section in
our TS/SPM meetings to coordinate pulling together the shorter presentations of not more
than 10 slides (Ramaswamy on drivers; Bindoff on observations; Hegerl on attribution,
Stocker on projections).
Many of you have kindly already sent around draft material for the longer science
presentations, and that has been very helpful. These will occur informally during lunch
breaks, or before the morning sessions at the plenary and will not be subject to
simultaneous translation. The most interested delegates will typically find these very
helpful, and will want to use them to ask you questions.
In addition, during the regular formal sessions and prior to presentation of each of the
major sections of the report (drivers, observations, attribution, and projections), we
will benefit from a very short presentation that introduces the section. The speaker's
words will be subject to simultaneous translation. We suggest that the paleo ice core
material be covered as part of the drivers, that the paleo observations be covered as
part of the observations, etc, to speed things up (we can switch speakers but keep
slides in the same file).
These shorter presentations are extremely important in setting the stage. They must be
very short. We will have an absolute limit of not more than 10 minutes, preferably 5
minutes for the shorter sections of the report namely drivers and attribution). Please
do not include more than a maximum of 10 slides. Questions will be strictly limited by
the session chair (Susan or Dahe) to matters of clarity (e.g., if an axis isn't clear).
We will go over both the shorter and the longer presentations jointly at our preparatory
meeting at the UNESCO center on Sat/Sun Jan 27/28 so please come prepared to do that. An
agenda for the preparatory meeting will be circulated to you shortly.
The shorter presentations can largely be derived from the longer ones. They will be
most helpful if:
- they do seek to provide a general sense of how the section is meant to fit
together and some key highlights.
- they present the figures and tables used in the SPM section to follow, but do
not include figures from the chapters unless absolutely essential. Including figures
from outside the report could create problems and should be avoided.
- they avoid raising new issues or suggesting changes from the distributed SPM.
As some of us have seen in the heated discussions via email about the MOC, sticking to
the agreed consensus obtained in the chapter teams is something our colleagues who will
not be in Paris would appreciate our doing as much as possible. We will need to agree
to all changes to be presented by us to delegates as a team in our preparatory meeting
on Jan 27-28. They will choose to seek more and that is what we will have to jointly
manage.
- they have very little text on them, as simple as possible.
- they do not try to cover each bullet.
You may wish to consider whether it is helpful to alternate speakers between your
science presentation and these short presentations, so that more of you get a chance to
speak.
Some of you asked for sample presentations. You are probably aware that we completed a
special report on HFCs/ozone in 2005. The short presentation on our section (section 2)
at that session worked extremely well and is appended here as an example in case you
want to glance at it, along with the SPM itself. We had much less material to cover of
course and more time to do it (this is more than 10 slides but don't be tempted as that
was a different situation) but we hope this is still helpful.
We look forward to seeeing you and discussing all of the presentations on Jan 27-28.
Best regards,
Susan, Martin, and Dahe
_______________________________________________
Wg1-ar4-clas mailing list
Wg1-ar4-clas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
[8]http://lists.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-clas
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
[9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
[10]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
References
1. http://lists.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-clas
2. mailto:wg1-ar4-clas-request@xxxxxxxxx.xxx%3Fsubject=unsubscribe
3. http://lists.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/private/wg1-ar4-clas
4. mailto:wg1-ar4-clas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
5. mailto:wg1-ar4-clas-request@xxxxxxxxx.xxx%3Fsubject=help
6. http://lists.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-clas
7. mailto:wg1-ar4-clas-request@xxxxxxxxx.xxx%3Fsubject=subscribe
8. http://lists.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-clas
9. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
10. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
Original Filename: 1202939193.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: J Shukla <shukla@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: IPCC-Sec <IPCC-Sec@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Future of the IPCC:
Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:46:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Ian.allison@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, neville.nicholls@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, fichefet@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mati@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, randall@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, philip@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, peltier@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, arinke@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, peter.lemke@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, bojariu@b.astral.ro, martin.heimann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, r.colman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, xiaoye_02@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, yukihiro.nojiri@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, artale@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, sumi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hauglustaine@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pasb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pierre.friedlingstein@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schulz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, t.k.berntsen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, menendez@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, stocker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, derzhang@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pmzhai@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, qdh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, zhaozc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, marengo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Ian.Watterson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, penny.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, unni@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jhc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, robted@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, anny.cazenave@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, francis.zwiers@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Greg.Flato@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john.fyfe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ken.denman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ulrike.lohmann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, piers@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, P.M.Cox@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, djacob@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, eystein.jansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gunnar.myhre@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, heinze@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, drind@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jouni.raisanen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, cdccc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, thomas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, yluo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, zongci_zhao@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gaoxj@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, artaxo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jwillebrand@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, scw@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, matsuno@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, amnat_c@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Albert.Klein.Tank@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dorlandv@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ricardo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, raynaud@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, taylor13@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, letreut@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Sandrine.Bony@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Jean-Claude.Duplessy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ciais@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jouzel@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, masson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kattsov@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jayes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, c.mauritzen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jknganga@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jorge.carrasco@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.m.gregory@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, james.murphy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jim.haywood@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, richard.betts@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, richard.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, richard.wood@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wontk@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rprinn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, s.raper@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pldsdias@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kitoh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, noda@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, derzhang@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mokssit@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, layesarr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, fujii@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, d.lowe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.renwick@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, d.wratt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, david.Easterling@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, david.w.fahey@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Isaac.Held@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, martin.manning@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Ronald.Stouffer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Susan.Solomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Sydney.Levitus@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, thomas.c.peterson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, v.ramaswamy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tzhang@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ckshum@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, apitman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hanawa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ram@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ralley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dingyh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jwren@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, b.j.hoskins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, bsoden@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gul@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, raga@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, victormr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jlean@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jto@u.arizona.edu, atgaye@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, brasseur@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, eholland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, knutti@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ottobli@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wcollins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mprather@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ltalley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mjmolina@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rsomerville@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, c.lequere@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, n.gillett@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, georg.kaser@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, penner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, laprise.rene@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, n.bindoff@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, weaver@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, anthony.chen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, cubasch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Rupa Kumar Kolli <RKolli@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, r.ramesh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dolago@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ambenje@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, busuioc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, david.parker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jorcar59@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rahim_f@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, solomina@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>
Dear All,
I would like to respond to some of the items in the attached text on
issues etc. in particular to the statement in the section 3.1.1
(sections 3: Drivers of required change in the future).
"There is now greater demand for a higher level of policy relevance in
the work of IPCC, which could provide policymakers a robust scientific
basis for action".
1. While it is true that a vast majority of the public and the
policymakers have accepted the reality of human influence on climate
change (in fact many of us were arguing for stronger language with a
higher level of confidence at the last meetings of the LAs), how
confident are we about the projected regional climate changes?
I would like to submit that the current climate models have such large
errors in simulating the statistics of regional (climate) that we are
not ready to provide policymakers a robust scientific basis for "action"
at regional scale. I am not referring to mitigation, I am strictly
referring to science based adaptation.
For example, we can not advise the policymakers about re-building the
city of New Orleans - or more generally about the habitability of the
Gulf-Coast - using climate models which have serious deficiencies in
simulating the strength, frequency and tracks of hurricanes.
We will serve society better by enhancing our efforts on improving our
models so that they can simulate the statistics of regional climate
fluctuations; for example: tropical (monsoon depressions, easterly
waves, hurricanes, typhoons, Madden-Julian oscillations) and
extratropical (storms, blocking) systems in the atmosphere; tropical
instability waves, energetic eddies, upwelling zones in the oceans;
floods and droughts on the land; and various manifestations (ENSO,
monsoons, decadal variations, etc.) of the coupled ocean-land-atmosphere
processes.
It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make
billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected
regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and
simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate
variability. Of course, even a hypothetical, perfect model does not
guarantee accurate prediction of the future regional climate, but at the
very least, our suggestion for action will be based on the best possible
science.
It is urgently required that the climate modeling community arrive at a
consensus on the required accuracy of the climate models to meet the
"greater demand for a higher level of policy relevance".
2. Is "model democracy" a valid scientific method? The "I" in the IPCC
desires that all models submitted by all governments be considered
equally probable. This should be thoroughly discussed, because it may
have serious implications for regional adaptation strategies. AR4 has
shown that model fidelity and model sensitivity are related. The models
used for IPCC assessments should be evaluated using a consensus metric.
3. Does dynamical downscaling for regional climate change provide a
robust scientific basis for action?
Is there a consensus in the climate modeling community on the validity
of regional climate prediction by dynamical downscaling? A large number
of dynamical downscaling efforts are underway worldwide. This is not
necessarily because it is meaningful to do it, but simply because it is
possible to do it. It is not without precedent that quite deficient
climate models are used by large communities simply because it is
convenient to use them. It is self-evident that if a coarse resolution
IPCC model does not correctly capture the large-scale mean and transient
response, a high-resolution regional model, forced by the lateral
boundary conditions from the coarse model, can not improve the response.
Considering the important role of multi-scale interactions and feedbacks
in the climate system, it is essential that the IPCC-class global models
themselves be run at sufficiently high resolution.
Regards,
Shukla
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IPCC-Sec wrote:
> Dear LAs & CLAs,
>
> Please find attached a letter and issues related to the future of the
> IPCC.
>
> With kind regards,
>
> Annie
>
> IPCC Secretariat
> WMO
> 7bis, Avenue de la Paix
> P.O. Box 2300
> 1211 Geneva 2
> SWITZERLAND
> Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx/8254/8284
> Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx/8013
> Email: IPCC-Sec@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> Website: http://www.ipcc.ch
>
> * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
>
>
>
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 1224035484.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Gabi Hegerl <Gabi.Hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Bamzai, Anjuli" <Anjuli.Bamzai@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: RE: Meeting Jan 21-23
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:51:24 +0100
Cc: Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, claudia tebaldi <claudia.tebaldi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Knutti Reto <reto.knutti@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiers@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tim Barnett <tbarnett-ul@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Hans von Storch <hvonstorch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Claudia Tebaldi <tebaldi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, David Karoly <dkaroly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Toru Nozawa <nozawa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ben Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Daithi Stone <stoned@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Richard Smith <rls@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Nathan Gillett <n.gillett@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Wehner <MFWehner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Doug Nychka <nychka@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Xuebin Zhang <Xuebin.Zhang@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Chris Miller <christopher.d.miller@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Knutson <Tom.Knutson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tim Delsole <delsole@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Susan Solomon <Susan.Solomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Jones, Gareth S" <gareth.s.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tara Torres <tara@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
<x-flowed>
Hi all, I assume this is general interest, not IDAG meeting - I think the
meeting would be a bit too big and complicated if we would try to resolve
IPCC type issues - on the other hand, involving Chris Field and maybe
Tom Stocker may be an interesting way to vent the scientific issues in
a relaxed setting. But I would suggest to avoid agency type things -
can be convinced otherwise if you feel strongly. we do have a limited
budget, too!
Gabi
Quoting "Bamzai, Anjuli" <Anjuli.Bamzai@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>:
> Myles,
>
> The Dept of State is the U.S. lead on IPCC, Conference of Party
> discussions, etc. USAID does the bulk of adaptation assistance at the
> international level. At the national level, there are various CCSP
> agencies, e.g. Dept of Agriculture, Dept of Interior, EPA, who are more
> on the 'application' side of the CCSP.
>
> I'd need to ask someone in those agencies on how they are approaching
> the issues you raise. Perhaps Chris Miller knows someone there...?
>
> Programs such as NOAA Climate Change Data Detection (CCDD), and DOE
> Climate Change Prediction Program(CCPP) focus almost exclusively on
> IPCC WG I type of questions.
>
> Anjuli
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Myles Allen [mailto:allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 5:00 AM
> To: claudia tebaldi; Gabi Hegerl
> Cc: Knutti Reto; Stott, Peter; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; Tim Barnett;
> Hans von Storch; Claudia Tebaldi; Phil Jones; David Karoly; Toru Nozawa;
> Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard Smith; Nathan Gillett; Michael Wehner;
> Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Bamzai, Anjuli; Chris Miller; Tom Knutson;
> Tim Delsole; Susan Solomon; Jones, Gareth S; Tara Torres
> Subject: RE: Meeting Jan 21-23
>
> Hi All,
>
> That is a very good idea indeed. I was talking to Tom Stocker last week,
> arguing that resolving the differences in the definition of attribution
> between WG1 and WG2 was going to be one of the key challenges for AR5,
> particularly as attribution of impacts becomes a live topic as countries
> start to make the case for adaptation assistance. How about we invite
> the co-Chair of WG1 along as well?
>
> If we are going to invite Chris Field, we should definitely also invite
> someone from the "double attribution" community, or it will seem a bit
> like WG1 lecturing to the co-Chair of WG2. Any suggestions, David?
>
> Anjuli, has anyone in the US State Department (or whichever department
> will handle this) started addressing the question of how the US
> government will distinguish "impacts of climate change" from
> "vulnerability to natural climate variability" in allocating resources
> for adaptation assistance? If anyone has even started thinking about
> this problem, it would be very interesting to hear from them to know
> what questions they are likely to need answering. We could also try and
> find out if anyone in the European Commission is worrying about this.
>
> Regards,
>
> Myles
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: claudia tebaldi [mailto:claudia.tebaldi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
> Sent: 13 October 2008 20:46
> To: Gabi Hegerl
> Cc: Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Stott, Peter; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario];
> Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Claudia Tebaldi; Phil Jones; David Karoly;
> Toru Nozawa; Ben Santer; stoned@xxxxxxxxx.xxx; Richard Smith; Nathan
> Gillett; Michael Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Bamzai, Anjuli;
> Chris Miller; Tom Knutson; Tim Delsole; Susan Solomon; Jones, Gareth S;
> Tara Torres
> Subject: Re: Meeting Jan 21-23
>
> Hi Gabi et al.
>
> I wonder if we could try to get Chris Field, who is going to be the
> chair of working group 2 for AR5...I don't know how likely it is to get
> him but it may be interesting to get his perspective on what was done in
> AR4 WG2 and what he would like to see in AR5 WG2.
>
> c
>
> On Mon, Oct 13, 2008 at 10:51 AM, Gabi Hegerl <gabi.hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
> wrote:
>> Hi IDAG people,
>>
>> Its time to start planning our next IDAG meeting in detail. A
> provisional
>> coarse agenda is attached. Please feel free to email me suggestions
>> to improve/update this, and if there is a topic you would
> love
>> to see covered but that isn;t please get in touch as well.
>> Also, we should have one topic related to the impacts review paper
> that is
>> to be written in year 2 of the grant. Therefore, if you have a
>> suggestion of a guest that would help us elucidate the
> challenges in
>> impact attribution but also to move forward on this, please let me
>> know!
>> Tara Torres from UCAR (tara@xxxxxxxxx.xxx) will help us to plan the
> meeting.
>> Also, I hope to hire a student helper at Duke to get our meeting
> webpage
>> going, keep track of agenda items etc, but please bear with me and
>> tolerate a bit of chaos before we have succeeded with this!
>>
>> What I need from you is to please
>> - let me know if you can make it, and what you would vaguely like to
> speak
>> about (you can do the first now and postpone the second)
>> - get in touch with Tara to book your travel - ideally, towards the
> end of
>> October / or in early November (she is a bit buried right now)
>> - get in touch with me when you have suggestions, or want to bring
> somebody
>>
>> Gabi
>>
>> --
>> Dr Gabriele Hegerl School of GeoSciences The University of Edinburgh
>> Grant Institute, The King's Buildings West Mains Road EDINBURGH EH9
>> 3JW Phone: +44 xxx xxxx xxxx, FAX: +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
> 3184
>> Email: Gabi.Hegerl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>>
>> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
>> Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
>>
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Claudia Tebaldi
> Research Scientist, Climate Central
> http://www.climatecentral.org
> currently visiting IMAGe/NCAR
> PO Box 3000
> Boulder, CO 80305
> tel. 303.497.2487
>
>
>
>
--
Gabriele Hegerl
School of GeoSciences
University of Edinburgh
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/people/person.html?indv=1613
--
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 1242136391.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "peter.thorne" <peter.thorne@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: CRUTEM4
Date: Tue, 12 May 2009 09:53:11 +0100
Phil,
I can't believe that people think it remotely reasonable behaviour to
send that sort of crud. They'd never say that to your face. I guess
their home is just that much more cosy and impersonal.
Cash would need spending in FY09/10 as I understand it, but someone for
six months (assuming they could start this Sept.) could be a route
forwards. It would be a good paper for them career-wise.
HadSST3 is in first draft form. I'm not sure what papers you assume will
arise. I think we were thinking of developing HadSST3 and CRUTEM4
seperately (but in a joined up way) and publishing as separate papers
and then doing a paper that covers combination to HadCRUT4 and perhaps,
for example, a d&a sensitivity to error model assumptions.
Peter
On Tue, 2xxx xxxx xxxxat 09:43 +0100, Phil Jones wrote:
> Peter,
> Below is one of three emails I got last night following a new thread on CA.
> I'll ignore them and wait for the FOI requests, which we have dealt
> with before.
> I did send an email to Thomas Stocker alerting him up to comment #17.
> These are all about who changed what in various chapters of AR4. I
> expect these
> to get worse with AR5.
>
> Anyway back to the matter in hand.
>
> I'm planning to come down to see Ian Simpson (probably on June
> 1). I'll get back
> to David on this later today.
> We've done some of what you aim for. We've sorted out the new Canadian
> WMO numbers and have extra data for Australia and NZ in. Australia comes in
> by email once a month. I'll have to find a new contact in NZ now
> Jim Salinger has
> been sacked - but it's only a small country. Iran is pretty good.
> The US is the large bit of work. The US already has better
> station density than
> almost anywhere else, so the effort won't make much difference. But
> it is probably
> worth doing, as it would reduce errors - even if no-one understands
> them. Glad
> you got the poor paper to review!
> Soon we will be adding data for the Greater Alpine Region (32 sites) which
> go back to 1760. These data all have adjustments for screen issues prior to
> about 1880. This makes summers cooler by about 0.4 deg C and winters about
> the same. Similarly, we will also add a load of stations for Spain
> (again with Screen
> biases in). There is probably more we could add for European countries,
> but again it is likely to make little difference, except to lower errors.
> The real issue is South America and Africa. We have the whole
> Argentine network,
> but this is only digitized back to 1959 and the data we had wasn't
> that bad anyway.
> Problem in South America is Brazil. Africa is OK in a few
> countries, but poor in many.
> We could add loads in China.
> Issue with all this is that most of the additions wouldn't be
> available from whenever
> we stop. We can probably do the US in real time like Australia.
> We've also been trying to add in the precip for many of these
> extra stations (not
> the Alpine countries and Spain).
> There is a timing issue. As I understand HadSST3 won't be
> available to be merged
> with until it is successfully reviewed. So need to consider this as well.
>
> A final issue is people here. We're OK for most of 2010 for all.
> We have a good
> student finishing a PhD by Sept who wants to stay, so couldn't
> really do anything
> till then.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
> Dear Mr Jones
>
> As a UK tax payer from the productive economy, could you please
> explain why you restrict access to data sets that are gathered using
> tax payer funds e.g. CRUTEM3. Can you believe how embarassing this is
> to a UK TAX PAYER, putting up with your amateurish non disclosure of
> enviromental information.
>
> For reference http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5962 refers to your
> absymal attitude to public data, although this is just the latest in
> an embarassing set of reasonable requests from CRU, who the hell do
> you think you are? There will of course be an FOI on the back of this
>
> Regards
> Ian
>
>
> At 08:54 12/05/2009, peter.thorne wrote:
> >Phil,
> >
> >there may be some money this FY, substantial sums. Management here are
> >casting around for ideas. As its to be spent this FY its largely going
> >to be consultant work as we never have a cats chance in hell of
> >recruiting on that timescale. What resource do you think we could
> >contract from CRU (you, Harry, others?) for doing a CRUTEM4 which I
> >would maintain had two aims ...
> >
> >1. Rescue and incorporation of recent data (I'm pinging NCDC too to see
> >what they could do vis-a-vis collating and sending the non-wmo US
> >stations and other data you may not have ... their bi-lats may have sig.
> >extra stations for Iran, Aus, Canada etc.)
> >
> >2. A more robust error model that led to production of a set of equi-
> >probable potential gridded products (HadSST3 will do simnilarly so we
> >could combine to form HadCRUT4 equi-probable). This error model
> >determination would ideally be modular so that we could assess how wrong
> >our assumptions about the error would have to be to "matter" and what
> >error sources are important for our ability to characterise the long-
> >term trend (trivially these will be the red noise I know but then most
> >people seem blind to the trivial sadly ...). The HadCRUT3 paper clearly
> >started well down that path but a recent paper I had the displeasure of
> >reviewing on my way back from WMO shows its poorly understood
> >(deliberately so in this particular case ...).
> >
> >We have a meeting Thursday. If it passes muster there we'll put it to
> >DECC and see what happens. No promises.
> >
> >This would mean we'd have HadCRUT4 which would be HadSST3 + CRUTEM4 each
> >with more data and better error models well before AR5 which seems
> >sensible ...
> >
> >Mr. Fraudit never goes away does he? How often has he been told that we
> >don't have permission? Ho hum. Oh, I heard that fraudit's Santer et al
> >comment got rejected. That'll brighten your day at least a teensy bit?
> >
> >Peter
> >--
> >Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist
> >Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
> >tel. xxx xxxx xxxxfax xxx xxxx xxxx
> >www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
--
Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
tel. xxx xxxx xxxxfax xxx xxxx xxxx
www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs
Original Filename: 1257847147.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "IPCC WGI TSU" <wg1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: IPCC Draft Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution for Review
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:59:07 +0100 (CET)
Reply-to: wg1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
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Dear Participants of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Detection & Attribution,
dear Colleagues,
Please find attached the draft version of the Good Practice Guidance Paper
(GPGP) which has been prepared by the Core Writing Team (CWT) following
the IPCC joint WGI/II Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution. Gabi,
Ove, Camille, David, Gino, Marty, Peter, and Sari, have been working very
hard to meet the TSU deadline and have managed to provide the Co-Chairs
with the attached draft version right in time for presentation at the IPCC
Plenary in Bali the last week of October. We all owe them our sincere
thanks for the efforts put into the preparation of this document.
Logistics:
We would now like to invite all participants of the Geneva Expert Meeting
to review the GPGP and to provide comments and suggestions on the attached
draft within 2 weeks from today (i.e. by *November 24*). If you do plan to
provide your inputs, please prepare your comments in a separate document
(word or plain text) in order to facilitate the handling of the comments
from potentially ~30 participants. Submission of the files will be by
email to the WGI TSU at wg1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx. We will collect all the
reviews, combine them into an easily manageable format and will then
forward them to the CWT. The task of the CWT will then be to consider all
your comments and revise the GPGP accordingly. We do not plan to send the
Guidance Paper out for a second round of comments, but trust that the CWT
will make every effort to take your suggestions into account as much as
possible.
Changes to terminology discussed in Geneva:
Please note that the CWT, after intense discussions, had to make a few
changes to the language used in the "approved" documents from the last
day's final plenary. One of the changes is the change from "direct" to
"single step" attribution. Given the level of discussion created within
the CWT and also during the meeting, the CWT felt it was more constructive
NOT to insinuate which methods are better or stronger and so strived for
neutral language, particularly as the views about what constitutes a
strong method differed between groups (not only IPCC WGs). Note that the
word